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What will the biggest earthquake be on October 27, 2026?
polymarket

What will the biggest earthquake be on October 27, 2026?

Volume:
$5,213

5.7 to 5.8

 - Polymarket

5.7 to 5.8 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 4:01 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

5.7 to 5.8

View
100%
12%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,628
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

6.1 or more

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,065
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

5.9 to 6.0

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$988
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Under 5.3

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$750
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

5.5 to 5.6

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$546
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

5.3 to 5.4

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$235
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 27, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog. Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on October 27, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time. Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column. If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on October 28, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered. If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. If no earthquake data for October 27, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on October 28, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 27, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog. Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on October 27, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time. Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column. If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on October 28, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered. If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. If no earthquake data for October 27, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on October 28, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the October 2026 earthquake market tracks the implied probability of different earthquake magnitudes occurring on October 27, 2026. You can view the current odds for each magnitude range, along with the total volume traded in this market, which currently stands at $5,213. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour volume, showing $1,030 in recent trading activity. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of various earthquake scenarios.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect the collective wisdom of traders on Polymarket. Comparing this to analyst forecasts regarding earthquake probabilities is challenging, as such forecasts are often broad and lack the specificity of magnitude ranges offered in this market. While seismological models provide long-term risk assessments, they don’t typically offer precise predictions for a single day. Therefore, this market offers a unique, forward-looking perspective on potential earthquake activity, potentially differing from retrospective analyses or generalized risk assessments.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different earthquake magnitude ranges. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that magnitude occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to aggregate diverse perspectives and provide a real-time estimate of earthquake risk.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded on October 27, 2026, as reported by a recognized seismological agency, will determine the winning outcome. The resolution will be based on publicly available data, ensuring transparency and objectivity. The specific magnitude range that corresponds to the largest earthquake will define the settlement of this market.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Increased seismic activity in the weeks or months leading up to October 27, 2026, particularly near major fault lines, would likely shift the odds towards higher magnitude ranges. Conversely, a period of prolonged seismic quiescence could lower those probabilities. Major scientific reports or revised risk assessments from seismological organizations could also influence trading activity. Finally, any significant news related to earthquake preparedness or potential geological instability could move this market.