TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
What will the biggest earthquake be on October 26, 2026?
polymarket

What will the biggest earthquake be on October 26, 2026?

Volume:
$5,866

5.5 to 5.6

 - Polymarket

5.5 to 5.6 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 4:02 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

5.5 to 5.6

View
100%
17%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,804
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Under 5.3

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,283
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

6.1 or more

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$779
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

5.7 to 5.8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$752
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

5.9 to 6.0

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$675
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

5.3 to 5.4

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$574
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 26, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog. Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on October 26, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time. Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column. If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on October 27, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered. If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. If no earthquake data for October 26, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on October 27, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 26, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog. Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on October 26, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time. Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column. If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on October 27, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered. If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. If no earthquake data for October 26, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on October 27, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the October 2026 earthquake market tracks the probabilities associated with different magnitude ranges for the largest earthquake occurring on October 26, 2026. You can view the current odds for each outcome, along with the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $2,879. Total volume for this market is $5,866. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of various earthquake sizes, offering insights into collective predictions as the event approaches.

Currently, prediction market participants are heavily favoring the possibility of a relatively small earthquake. This contrasts with some seismological forecasts, which suggest a non-negligible probability of a larger event occurring within that timeframe. However, it's important to remember that analyst forecasts are based on complex models and historical data, while this market reflects the aggregated beliefs of a diverse group of traders. The difference in perspectives highlights the inherent uncertainty surrounding earthquake prediction and the value of combining different sources of information.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded on October 26, 2026, will be used to determine the winning outcome. Data will be sourced from established seismological agencies and databases to ensure accuracy and reliability. The resolution will be based on the officially reported magnitude, providing a clear and objective determination of the market’s outcome.

Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Increased seismic activity in the weeks or months leading up to October 26, 2026, could shift probabilities towards higher magnitude outcomes. Conversely, a period of prolonged seismic quiescence might increase confidence in a smaller earthquake. Significant updates to earthquake forecasting models or expert opinions could also impact trader sentiment. Finally, major news events related to earthquake preparedness or risk assessment could trigger shifts in the market as traders reassess the likelihood of different scenarios.