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What will the biggest earthquake be on October 23, 2026?
polymarket

What will the biggest earthquake be on October 23, 2026?

Volume:
$7,116

5.7 to 5.8

 - Polymarket

5.7 to 5.8 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 24, 2026

Closed: Oct 24, 4:24 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

5.7 to 5.8

View
100%
16%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,275
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Under 5.3

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,453
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

6.1 or more

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,712
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

5.3 to 5.4

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$647
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

5.5 to 5.6

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$639
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

5.9 to 6.0

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$390
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 23, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog. Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on October 23, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time. Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column. If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on October 24, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered. If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. If no earthquake data for October 23, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on October 24, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 23, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog. Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on October 23, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time. Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column. If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on October 24, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered. If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. If no earthquake data for October 23, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on October 24, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the October 2026 earthquake market tracks the implied probability of different earthquake magnitudes occurring on October 23, 2026. You’ll find the current odds for each magnitude range, along with a price history showing how those odds have shifted over time. The 24-hour trading volume is also displayed, indicating how much activity there has been in this market recently. Currently, the total volume is $7,066 and the 24-hour volume is $2,385.

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts for earthquake magnitudes. Traditional earthquake forecasts often focus on probabilities over longer timeframes and broader regions, while this market asks for a prediction on a specific date. However, comparing the implied probabilities from this market with expert opinions on seismic activity and the likelihood of major earthquakes could reveal interesting insights. It's important to note that prediction markets reflect the collective wisdom of traders, which may differ from individual expert assessments.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment of the group. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price is driven by supply and demand; if many traders believe a large earthquake is likely, they will buy contracts, driving up the price, and vice versa.

This market resolves around Oct 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will resolve to the largest magnitude earthquake recorded on October 23, 2026, as reported by a recognized seismological authority. The resolution will be based on publicly available data and will reflect the most accurate and widely accepted measurement of earthquake magnitude. The outcome will be determined by objective data, not subjective interpretation.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major aftershocks following smaller earthquakes in seismically active zones could increase traders’ concerns about a larger event. New research or reports from seismologists regarding increased stress along fault lines could also shift the odds. Unexpected geological events, such as volcanic activity, might also influence the market. Conversely, reassurances from experts about stable seismic conditions could lower the perceived risk and decrease the price of contracts predicting a large earthquake.