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What will the biggest earthquake be on November 3, 2026?
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polymarket

What will the biggest earthquake be on November 3, 2026?

Nov 1, 2026, 12:07 AM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 2:00 PM EST
Total volume:
N/A
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$131
204%
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Under 5.3

 - Polymarket

Under 5.3 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:17h:23m

Will the biggest earthquake on November 3, 2026 be under 5.3?

98%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 98¢ buys you 102 shares | Odds: 98% Total Payout: $102 | Net Profit: $2 Multiplier: 1.02x | ROI: 2% APY not meaningful Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Under 5.3

Trade
98%
2%
Yes 98¢No 51¢
—
$100
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 17h 23m
Active
polymarket

5.3 to 5.4

Trade
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 50¢
—
$8
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 17h 23m
Active
polymarket

5.5 to 5.6

Trade
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 50¢
—
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 17h 23m
Active
polymarket

5.7 to 5.8

Trade
100%
Yes 100¢No 50¢
—
$8
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 17h 23m
Active
polymarket

5.9 to 6.0

Trade
100%
Yes 100¢No 50¢
—
$2
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 17h 23m
Active
polymarket

6.1 or more

Trade
100%
Yes 100¢No 50¢
—
$9
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 17h 23m
Active
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on November 3, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog. Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on November 3, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time. Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column. If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on November 4, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered. If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. If no earthquake data for November 3, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on November 4, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on November 3, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog. Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on November 3, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time. Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column. If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on November 4, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered. If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. If no earthquake data for November 3, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on November 4, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the November 2026 earthquake market tracks the probabilities associated with different magnitude ranges for the largest earthquake occurring on November 3, 2026. You’ll find the current odds for each potential outcome, alongside the total volume traded in this market, which currently stands at $0. The 24-hour volume is also displayed, showing $0 in recent trading activity. This allows users to gauge market sentiment and track how predictions are evolving as we approach the event date.

Currently, assessing how prediction market odds compare to analyst forecasts requires looking at general seismological predictions. Experts typically don’t forecast the *exact* magnitude of an earthquake on a specific date, but rather assess probabilities for seismic activity in regions. This market provides a more concrete, date-specific prediction, and the current probabilities reflect the collective wisdom of traders on Polymarket. It’s interesting to compare the most likely outcome in this market—currently with a chance of 100.0%—against broader geological risk assessments.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe a specific magnitude range is likely, the higher the price of shares for that outcome will climb. This dynamic pricing allows the market to aggregate information and provide a real-time assessment of the most probable earthquake magnitude.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded on November 3, 2026, will be used to determine the winning outcome. Data will be sourced from established seismological agencies and their publicly available records. The resolution will be based on the Richter scale or a comparable measurement system, ensuring a standardized and objective assessment of the earthquake’s size.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major aftershocks in seismically active regions, or updated risk assessments from geological surveys, could shift trader sentiment. Increased media coverage of earthquake preparedness or unusual seismic activity could also influence trading activity. Unexpectedly high or low readings from seismic monitoring networks in the weeks leading up to November 3, 2026, would likely cause notable price fluctuations in this market. Any significant news relating to earthquake prediction technology could also impact trading.