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What will the biggest earthquake be on November 2, 2026?
⌛Ending Soon
polymarket

What will the biggest earthquake be on November 2, 2026?

Oct 31, 2026, 12:07 AM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 2:00 PM EST
Total volume:
N/A
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$208
362%
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Under 5.3

 - Polymarket

Under 5.3 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 18h:23m:14s

Will the biggest earthquake on November 2, 2026 be under 5.3?

100%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 50¢ buys you 200 shares | Odds: 100% Total Payout: $200 | Net Profit: $100 Multiplier: 2.00x | ROI: 100% | APY: N/A Illiquid market
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Under 5.3

Trade
100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 50¢
—
$100
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
18h 23m
Active
polymarket

5.3 to 5.4

Trade
100%
Yes 100¢No 50¢
—
$100
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
18h 23m
Active
polymarket

5.5 to 5.6

Trade
100%
9%
Yes 100¢No 50¢
—
$2
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
18h 23m
Active
polymarket

5.7 to 5.8

Trade
50%
5%
Yes 98¢No 99¢
97¢
$2
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
18h 23m
Active
polymarket

5.9 to 6.0

Trade
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 50¢
—
$2
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
18h 23m
Active
polymarket

6.1 or more

Trade
50%
6%
Yes 99¢No 99¢
98¢
$2
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
18h 23m
Active
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on November 2, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog. Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on November 2, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time. Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column. If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on November 3, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered. If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. If no earthquake data for November 2, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on November 3, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on November 2, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog. Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on November 2, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time. Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column. If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on November 3, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered. If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. If no earthquake data for November 2, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on November 3, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the November 2026 earthquake market tracks the probabilities associated with different magnitude ranges for the largest earthquake occurring on November 2, 2026. You can view the current odds for each potential outcome, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $0. Total volume for this market is $0. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of various earthquake sizes, offering insights into the collective prediction.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts for earthquake magnitudes. Traditional earthquake prediction relies on complex geological models and historical data, often expressed as probabilities of exceeding certain magnitude thresholds within a given timeframe. This market provides a different perspective, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders and their assessment of the likelihood of various outcomes. It’s important to remember that prediction market prices are driven by speculation and information available to traders, which may differ from the factors considered by seismological analysts.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded on November 2, 2026, by a recognized seismological agency will determine the winning outcome. The resolution will be based on publicly available data and will reflect the most accurate measurement of earthquake magnitude available at the time of resolution. Any discrepancies in reported magnitudes will be assessed based on established seismological standards.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major aftershocks from recent earthquakes, new geological research indicating increased seismic activity in specific regions, or even shifts in public perception regarding earthquake risk could all influence trading activity. Unexpected developments in earthquake early warning systems or changes in government preparedness measures might also play a role. Additionally, any significant news related to tectonic plate movements or fault line activity could lead to shifts in the probabilities reflected in this market.