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What will the biggest earthquake be on November 1, 2026?
polymarket

What will the biggest earthquake be on November 1, 2026?

Volume:
$872

5.9 to 6.0

 - Polymarket

5.9 to 6.0 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 4:02 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

5.9 to 6.0

View
100%
50%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$388
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

5.3 to 5.4

View
0%
45%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$258
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

5.7 to 5.8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$111
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Under 5.3

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$75
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

5.5 to 5.6

View
0%
91%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$35
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

6.1 or more

View
0%
50%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on November 1, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog. Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on November 1, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time. Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column. If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on November 2, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered. If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. If no earthquake data for November 1, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on November 2, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on November 1, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog. Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on November 1, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time. Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column. If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on November 2, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered. If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. If no earthquake data for November 1, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on November 2, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the November 2026 earthquake market displays the current probabilities associated with different magnitude ranges for the largest earthquake occurring on November 1, 2026. You can view the implied probabilities for each outcome, along with the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $792. The total volume traded in this market is $872. The dashboard also provides a visual representation of how the probabilities have shifted over time, allowing you to track market sentiment.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of each contract reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price discovery process allows for a dynamic assessment of risk and potential reward, driven by the collective intelligence of the participants.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded on November 1, 2026, will be determined by data from established seismological agencies. The market will settle based on the highest magnitude earthquake officially recorded by these agencies, providing a clear and objective determination of the outcome. Traders should monitor these sources as the resolution date approaches.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major aftershocks in seismically active zones, updates from geological surveys regarding fault line stress, or even advancements in earthquake prediction technology could all influence trader sentiment. Unexpected seismic activity in the weeks leading up to November 1, 2026, would likely cause significant shifts in probabilities. Conversely, a period of sustained seismic calm might lead traders to reassess the likelihood of a large earthquake, impacting the prices within this market.