TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of October 12 2026?
limitless

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of October 12 2026?

Volume:
$294

↓ $765

 - Limitless

↓ $765 - Limitless

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 4:00 PM EST

limitless

Limitless

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
limitless

↓ $765

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$0
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
limitless

↓ $770

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$0
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
limitless

↑ $780

View
0%
75%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$294
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

↑ $810

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

↑ $805

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

↑ $800

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

↑ $795

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

↑ $790

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

↑ $785

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

↓ $775

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
limitless

↓ $760

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

↓ $755

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

↓ $750

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

↓ $745

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 14

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during the week of October 12 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000) If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.

Limitless

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during the week of October 12 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000) If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional spot price expectations, particularly when considering longer-term forecasts like this one. Polls and analyst predictions frequently focus on near-term trends and can be heavily influenced by current events, while this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, attempting to forecast the S&P 500’s level further out. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and time horizons. The market’s price reflects what traders believe is the most likely outcome, incorporating a wide range of information and potential scenarios.

On Limitless, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different price levels for the S&P 500 in October 2026. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that specific price level being reached. On Limitless, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market constantly incorporates new data and reflects the collective intelligence of those trading it. The market’s efficiency depends on active participation and informed traders.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the closing price of the S&P 500 index on the Friday of the week of October 12, 2026. The market will determine whether the index closes above or below the various price levels offered in the contracts. It’s important to remember that the final settlement will rely on publicly available and widely accepted financial data, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome.

Numerous signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major macroeconomic shifts, such as changes in interest rates, inflation, or economic growth, are key drivers. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or trade disputes, could also cause substantial price movements. Furthermore, significant corporate earnings reports, unexpected policy changes, or even major technological breakthroughs could influence trader sentiment and shift the probabilities reflected in this market. Unexpected events, like a black swan event, could also cause a rapid change in the market’s price.