TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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What will gas hit the week of November 2?
🌟New
polymarket

What will gas hit the week of November 2?

Nov 1, 2026, 10:07 AM EST - Nov 8, 2026, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$177
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$698
617%
Open interest:
$172N/A

↓ $4.16

 - Polymarket

↓ $4.16 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 8, 2026

Time left: 05d:10h:57m

Will US gas hit $4.16 (Low) the week of November 2?

88%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 88% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 84% Low liquidity 5 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

↓ $4.16

Trade
88%
Yes 99¢No 24¢
23¢
$411
$44
0%
N/A
N/A
5d 10h 57m
Active
polymarket

↑ $4.26

Trade
41%
1%
Yes 72¢No 91¢
63¢
$41
$62
0%
N/A
N/A
5d 10h 57m
Active
polymarket

↑ $4.24

Trade
39%
Yes 72¢No 95¢
67¢
$13
$10
0%
N/A
N/A
5d 10h 57m
Active
polymarket

↑ $4.28

Trade
39%
15%
Yes 69¢No 92¢
61¢
$78
$60
0%
N/A
N/A
5d 10h 57m
Active
polymarket

↑ $4.22

Trade
36%
Yes 68¢No 96¢
64¢
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 10h 57m
Active
polymarket

↑ $4.20

Trade
52%
Yes 99¢No 95¢
94¢
$22
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 10h 57m
Active
polymarket

↑ $4.18

Trade
52%
Yes 99¢No 95¢
94¢
$28
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 10h 57m
Active
polymarket

↓ $4.14

Trade
59%
Yes 97¢No 79¢
76¢
$86
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 10h 57m
Active
polymarket

↓ $4.12

Trade
50%
Yes 99¢No 99¢
98¢
$1
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 10h 57m
Active
polymarket

↓ $4.10

Trade
50%
Yes 99¢No 99¢
98¢
$1
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 10h 57m
Active
polymarket

↓ $4.08

Trade
50%
Yes 99¢No 99¢
98¢
$1
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 10h 57m
Active
polymarket

↓ $4.06

Trade
50%
Yes 99¢No 99¢
98¢
$1
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 10h 57m
Active
Total markets: 12

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US national average price of regular gasoline published by AAA is equal to or above the specified price for options marked ↑ (High), or equal to or below the specified price for options marked ↓ (Low), for any date from Monday, November 2, 2026 through Sunday, November 8, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market resolves based on the US national average price of regular gasoline published by AAA at https://gasprices.aaa.com/ in the "National Average Gas Prices" table under the "Regular" column and the "Current Avg." row. Each date's price is the price displayed at 10:00 AM ET on that date, provided that at that time the "Price as of" date shown on the webpage is that date and the "Yesterday Avg." row in the same column shows the previous date's price. If either condition is not met at 10:00 AM ET, the price will be observed at the first time on that date at which both are met; if both are not met by 11:59 PM ET on that date, the price displayed in the table at that time will be used. If AAA does not display the US national average price of regular gasoline in the table at the time of observation, the price displayed elsewhere on the webpage will be used. If AAA displays no US national average price of regular gasoline on the specified webpage at any time on one or more dates within the specified week, this market will resolve based on the prices observed for the remaining dates. The resolution source for this market will be the American Automobile Association (AAA) (https://gasprices.aaa.com/). Note: AAA currently publishes gas prices to four decimal places (e.g., $4.3718). The price will be used as published, without rounding.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US national average price of regular gasoline published by AAA is equal to or above the specified price for options marked ↑ (High), or equal to or below the specified price for options marked ↓ (Low), for any date from Monday, November 2, 2026 through Sunday, November 8, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market resolves based on the US national average price of regular gasoline published by AAA at https://gasprices.aaa.com/ in the "National Average Gas Prices" table under the "Regular" column and the "Current Avg." row. Each date's price is the price displayed at 10:00 AM ET on that date, provided that at that time the "Price as of" date shown on the webpage is that date and the "Yesterday Avg." row in the same column shows the previous date's price. If either condition is not met at 10:00 AM ET, the price will be observed at the first time on that date at which both are met; if both are not met by 11:59 PM ET on that date, the price displayed in the table at that time will be used. If AAA does not display the US national average price of regular gasoline in the table at the time of observation, the price displayed elsewhere on the webpage will be used. If AAA displays no US national average price of regular gasoline on the specified webpage at any time on one or more dates within the specified week, this market will resolve based on the prices observed for the remaining dates. The resolution source for this market will be the American Automobile Association (AAA) (https://gasprices.aaa.com/). Note: AAA currently publishes gas prices to four decimal places (e.g., $4.3718). The price will be used as published, without rounding.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the gas price market dashboard provides a real-time view of trader sentiment regarding gasoline prices the week of November 2. You’ll find the current implied probability of various price ranges, along with the total volume traded, currently at $176, and the 24-hour volume, which is $116. The dashboard also displays the price history of the market, allowing you to see how predictions have shifted over time. This allows participants to gauge the collective wisdom of the crowd and track changes in expectations.

Currently, analysts are offering a range of predictions for gas prices in early November, with estimates varying based on factors like crude oil prices and geopolitical events. However, this market provides a different perspective, reflecting the aggregated beliefs of individuals actively trading on Polymarket. It’s important to note that prediction market odds can sometimes diverge from traditional forecasts, as they incorporate a wider range of information and are constantly updated based on new developments. This offers a unique comparison point to standard expert opinions.

On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether gas prices will fall into specific ranges. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe a particular price range is likely, the higher the price of the corresponding contract will rise. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date information and collective intelligence of the participants.

This market resolves around Nov 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the average U.S. regular gasoline price for the week of November 2 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on data from a widely recognized source tracking national gas price averages. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual average gas price during that specific week. This allows for a clear and objective determination of the market’s outcome.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 8, 2026. Unexpected disruptions to crude oil supply, such as geopolitical instability in major oil-producing regions, could drive prices higher. Conversely, increased oil production or a decrease in demand could lower prices. Major economic reports, particularly those related to inflation and consumer spending, could also impact sentiment. Additionally, any significant weather events, like hurricanes affecting refinery operations, could create short-term price volatility and move this market.