What will be the outcome of Justin Sun vs Jing Tian?

Predict

On August 27th, 2026, Zhang Qihuai (Justin Sun's lawyer) announced that Sun filed a civil suit against Jing Tian and her parents. In the lawsuit he demands repayment of RMB 30 million he claims to be "bride price" (“彩礼,” caili). This is a market on the outcome of this lawsuit. These are the conditions for each outcome: - The market **Justin Sun wins** will resolve to "Yes" if the court issues a contested Civil Judgment (民事判决书) ordering any of the defendants to pay any amount of money (even 1 RMB) to Justin Sun or his parents. - The market **Justin Sun loses** will resolve to "Yes" if the court issues a contested Civil Judgment (民事判决书) where the defendants must not pay any money to Justin Sun or his parents. - The market **No contested civil judgment** will resolve to "Yes" if the court does not issue a first merits judgment for the case. If the court issues a Civil Mediation Statement (民事调解书) or the parties sign a private settlement agreement, the market will resolve to "No contested civil judgment", even if it requires the defendants to pay money to Justin Sun. If the parties agree on a settlement, whether it is private or court-mediated, or if Justin Sun withdraws the lawsuit and the court accepts the withdrawal, this market will resolve to "No contested civil judgment". This market refers only to the first merits judgment on the court case involving Justin Sun vs Jing Tian and her parents which was filed in Xi’an Yanta District People’s Court, regardless of any future appeals. The defendants need not pay any amount for "Justin Sun wins" to resolve to "Yes", the court's decision is sufficient. If the outcome of the case is not public by June 30, 2028 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No contested civil judgment". If the case is procedurally dismissed (驳回起诉), and Justin Sun files again until the case is accepted, the market will resolve based on the outcome of the amended case. If the case is moved to a different jurisdiction, but the claims and parties remain the same, it will count as the same case. If the case is dismissed in the original venue and filed again under a different cause of action (eg "unjust enrichment" rather than as a "bride price" dispute), it will count as the same case as long as it involves the Justin Sun against Jing Tian and the same amount of money. If Justin Sun does not refile again before the deadline, the market will resolve to "No contested civil judgment". If defendants don't appear for the trial and the court issues a default judgment (缺席判决), the market will resolve to "Justin Sun wins" or "Justin Sun loses" based on who the court sides with. The official resolution source for trial outcomes in this market will be a consensus of credible reporting or official Court documents. The official resolution source for private settlement agreements will be official messages from either Justin Sun or Jing Tian's (and their lawyers') official accounts on social media.