TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$129,159,707
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,442,132,418
404,744
Markets across
30,489
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,691
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 11, 11:06 PM EST
Opinion
An "↑" market resolves to "Yes" if the official daily "High" for Tesla (TSLA) is at or above the price specified in the market at any point inside the window; an "↓" market resolves to "Yes" if the official daily "Low" is at or below the specified price. Boundary touches count. Markets whose level is never reached before the deadline resolve "No". In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Tesla (TSLA), these markets resolve on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in each market is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Tesla (TSLA) daily price data available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/. If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Tesla (TSLA) trades governs.
An "↑" market resolves to "Yes" if the official daily "High" for Tesla (TSLA) is at or above the price specified in the market at any point inside the window; an "↓" market resolves to "Yes" if the official daily "Low" is at or below the specified price. Boundary touches count. Markets whose level is never reached before the deadline resolve "No". In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Tesla (TSLA), these markets resolve on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in each market is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Tesla (TSLA) daily price data available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/. If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Tesla (TSLA) trades governs.
Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a higher probability of the Tesla stock price increasing than decreasing. This contrasts with some traditional analyst forecasts, which present a more mixed outlook, with several firms issuing hold or even sell ratings. However, it’s important to remember that analyst forecasts are based on fundamental analysis and modeling, while this market reflects the wisdom of the crowd and incorporates a wider range of information, including sentiment and unexpected events. The market’s current implied probability of an increase is a valuable data point alongside those traditional analyses.
On Opinion, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential Tesla stock prices. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that price being reached. On Opinion, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who buy a contract, the higher its price goes, indicating greater confidence in that outcome. Conversely, increased selling pressure lowers the price. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly adapt to new information and changing sentiment surrounding Tesla.
This market resolves around Sep 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will settle based on the closing price of Tesla (TSLA) stock during the week of September 7, 2026. The closing price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predicted price range aligns with the actual closing price during that week.
Numerous factors could significantly influence this market. Major announcements from Tesla regarding new products, production numbers, or technological breakthroughs would likely cause substantial price movement. Broader economic trends, such as interest rate changes or shifts in the automotive industry, could also play a role. Unexpected events, like regulatory changes or significant competitor actions, could also impact investor sentiment and, consequently, the prices within this market. Furthermore, Elon Musk’s public statements and actions often have a notable effect on Tesla’s stock price.