TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 23, 11:13 PM EST
Opinion
An "↑" market resolves to "Yes" if the official daily "High" for Tesla (TSLA) is at or above the price specified in the market at any point inside the window; an "↓" market resolves to "Yes" if the official daily "Low" is at or below the specified price. Boundary touches count. Markets whose level is never reached before the deadline resolve "No". In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Tesla (TSLA), these markets resolve on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in each market is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Tesla (TSLA) daily price data available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/. If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Tesla (TSLA) trades governs.
An "↑" market resolves to "Yes" if the official daily "High" for Tesla (TSLA) is at or above the price specified in the market at any point inside the window; an "↓" market resolves to "Yes" if the official daily "Low" is at or below the specified price. Boundary touches count. Markets whose level is never reached before the deadline resolve "No". In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Tesla (TSLA), these markets resolve on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in each market is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Tesla (TSLA) daily price data available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/. If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Tesla (TSLA) trades governs.
Currently, prediction market participants, through this market, are signaling a different outlook than many traditional analyst forecasts for Tesla. While analysts’ price targets vary, they generally cluster around a certain range, often based on discounted cash flow models and company performance. This market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their capital at risk, potentially incorporating factors not fully captured in conventional analysis. It’s a way to see what people *believe* will happen, rather than what models *predict* will happen.
On Opinion, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the future Tesla stock price. The current price reflects the point at which buyers and sellers agree, creating a dynamic estimate of probability. On Opinion, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by new information, shifts in sentiment, and the actions of other traders on the platform. The most popular outcome currently has a significant volume, indicating strong conviction among participants.
This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the average closing price of Tesla stock during the week of October 19, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on publicly available financial data, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the result. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual stock price during that specified week. This provides a clear and definitive outcome for this market.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 23, 2026. Major announcements from Tesla regarding new products, production numbers, or financial performance would be key catalysts. Broader economic trends, such as interest rate changes or shifts in the automotive industry, could also play a role. Unexpected news related to Elon Musk, regulatory changes impacting the electric vehicle market, or even significant technological breakthroughs by competitors could all move the price in this market. Any event that alters the perceived future value of Tesla stock is likely to be reflected in trading activity.