TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 23, 11:07 PM EST
Opinion
An "↑" market resolves to "Yes" if the official daily "High" for Microsoft (MSFT) is at or above the price specified in the market at any point inside the window; an "↓" market resolves to "Yes" if the official daily "Low" is at or below the specified price. Boundary touches count. Markets whose level is never reached before the deadline resolve "No". In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Microsoft (MSFT), these markets resolve on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in each market is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) daily price data available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/. If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Microsoft (MSFT) trades governs.
An "↑" market resolves to "Yes" if the official daily "High" for Microsoft (MSFT) is at or above the price specified in the market at any point inside the window; an "↓" market resolves to "Yes" if the official daily "Low" is at or below the specified price. Boundary touches count. Markets whose level is never reached before the deadline resolve "No". In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Microsoft (MSFT), these markets resolve on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in each market is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) daily price data available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/. If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Microsoft (MSFT) trades governs.
Currently, prediction market participants are expressing a view on Microsoft’s stock price that may differ from traditional analyst expectations. While analysts typically provide point estimates or ranges, this market allows for a probabilistic assessment of various price levels. It’s common to see prediction markets incorporate information and perspectives not fully captured in standard financial analysis. The collective wisdom of traders on Opinion can sometimes anticipate market movements more effectively than individual forecasts, offering a unique perspective on potential outcomes for MSFT.
On Opinion, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the future price of Microsoft stock. The current price reflects the highest price a buyer is willing to pay and the lowest price a seller is willing to accept. On Opinion, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market price constantly adjusts to incorporate new information and changing sentiment. The more traders participate, the more efficiently the market reflects the collective forecast for MSFT.
This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will resolve to the closing price of Microsoft (MSFT) stock on the Friday of the week of October 19, 2026. This price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider and will serve as the definitive outcome for this market. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual closing price.
Several factors could significantly impact this market between now and Oct 23, 2026. Major announcements from Microsoft regarding new products, earnings reports, or significant partnerships could all cause price fluctuations. Broader economic trends, such as interest rate changes or shifts in the technology sector, will also play a role. Unexpected geopolitical events or changes in investor sentiment towards tech stocks could also move the market. Any news that alters the perceived future growth prospects of Microsoft is likely to influence trading activity and the implied price within this market.