TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 1:51 AM EST
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Opinion
Description
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if, during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last date), any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT reaches the price specified in the title in the specified direction — for an "above" market, a final "High" price equal to or greater than that price; for a "below" market, a final "Low" price equal to or less than that price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Opinion
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if, during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last date), any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT reaches the price specified in the title in the specified direction — for an "above" market, a final "High" price equal to or greater than that price; for a "below" market, a final "Low" price equal to or less than that price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, the most likely outcome in this market, according to traders on Opinion, is a Bitcoin price around $78,000. This differs from typical spot price expectations, which are based on current market conditions and future projections from analysts. Prediction markets aggregate diverse perspectives and can sometimes offer a more accurate forecast by incorporating information beyond traditional financial analysis. It’s important to remember that these are probabilistic predictions, not guarantees, and reflect the wisdom of the crowd as expressed through trading activity.
On Opinion, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different Bitcoin price outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Opinion, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe a particular price is likely, the higher the contract price will rise, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of participants, offering a forward-looking assessment of Bitcoin's potential value.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the Bitcoin price during the week of October 26, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a widely recognized and trusted source for Bitcoin pricing data, ensuring an objective and transparent determination of the winning outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final settled price and their positions in this market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major regulatory developments concerning cryptocurrency, particularly in the United States or China, could cause substantial price swings. Unexpected macroeconomic events, such as shifts in interest rate policies or global recessions, could also influence investor sentiment towards Bitcoin. Technological advancements or security breaches related to the Bitcoin network itself are additional catalysts. Finally, large-scale adoption by institutions or significant endorsements from influential figures could drive up demand and move this market higher.
