TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 21, 4:27 PM EST
Opinion
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if, during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last date), any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT reaches the price specified in the title in the specified direction — for an "above" market, a final "High" price equal to or greater than that price; for a "below" market, a final "Low" price equal to or less than that price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if, during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last date), any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT reaches the price specified in the title in the specified direction — for an "above" market, a final "High" price equal to or greater than that price; for a "below" market, a final "Low" price equal to or less than that price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Currently, prediction market odds suggest a different outlook than many traditional spot price expectations for Bitcoin. While analysts and polls often focus on short-term fluctuations and technical indicators, this market reflects a longer-term view extending to October 2026. The prevailing sentiment, as indicated by the odds, is that Bitcoin is likely to increase in value, but the degree of that increase is still subject to considerable uncertainty. This difference highlights the unique perspective offered by prediction markets, which aggregate diverse opinions into a forward-looking probability assessment.
On Opinion, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the future Bitcoin price. The price of these contracts directly reflects the collective probability of Bitcoin reaching specific price levels. On Opinion, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform uses a market maker system to ensure liquidity and facilitate trading, allowing participants to express their views and profit from accurate predictions. The current implied probabilities are shaped by the supply and demand for these contracts, providing a dynamic and real-time assessment of market expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the Bitcoin price during the week of October 19, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a widely recognized and trusted source for Bitcoin pricing data. Traders will be able to see the final price and how it aligns with the various prediction outcomes offered in this market. The process is designed to be transparent and objective, ensuring a fair and accurate settlement of all contracts.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major regulatory developments concerning cryptocurrency, such as new legislation or enforcement actions, could have a substantial impact. Significant technological advancements in the Bitcoin network, like upgrades to scalability or privacy features, could also shift sentiment. Macroeconomic factors, including inflation rates, interest rate changes, and global economic growth, will play a role. Finally, unexpected geopolitical events or major shifts in institutional adoption could all influence the price of Bitcoin and, consequently, the trading activity in this market.