TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 19, 6:04 AM EST
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Opinion
Description
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if, during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last date), any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT reaches the price specified in the title in the specified direction — for an "above" market, a final "High" price equal to or greater than that price; for a "below" market, a final "Low" price equal to or less than that price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Opinion
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if, during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last date), any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT reaches the price specified in the title in the specified direction — for an "above" market, a final "High" price equal to or greater than that price; for a "below" market, a final "Low" price equal to or less than that price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market participants are expressing a different outlook than many traditional forecasts. While some analysts predict continued volatility, this market reflects a collective judgment about the likely price of Bitcoin in late 2026. It is important to note that prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions and can sometimes offer a more accurate forecast than individual expert predictions. The current implied probability of Bitcoin reaching certain price levels, as reflected in this market, provides a unique perspective on future price expectations.
On Opinion, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the future Bitcoin price. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability distribution. On Opinion, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price reflects the collective wisdom of participants, and changes in price indicate shifts in sentiment. Currently, the top outcome, as indicated by trader activity, is a price of ↓ 76,000, though this can change rapidly with new information.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the Bitcoin price during the week of October 12, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price will be determined by a widely recognized and publicly available source for Bitcoin pricing data. The market will pay out to those who correctly predicted the price range, based on the contract they purchased. Traders should monitor news and events leading up to this date to stay informed about potential price movements.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major regulatory changes concerning cryptocurrency, widespread adoption by institutions, or significant technological advancements in the Bitcoin network could all cause shifts in price expectations. Unexpected macroeconomic events, such as global recessions or shifts in monetary policy, could also play a role. Furthermore, news regarding the security and scalability of Bitcoin, or the emergence of competing cryptocurrencies, could influence trading activity and move this market considerably before Oct 19, 2026.
