TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.6b

24H VOL:

$142,655,281

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,799,919,006

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,786,354,419

500,246

Markets across

37,533

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,830

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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What price will Bitcoin hit September 28-October 4?
limitless
polymarket

What price will Bitcoin hit September 28-October 4?

Total volume:
$2,310,252
Volume 24h:
$420,302
52%
Liquidity:
$0
100%
Open interest:
$1,063,294N/A

↑ 86,000

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Limitless

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Closed: Oct 2, 12:32 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

↑ 86,000

View
100%
63%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$210,139
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
limitless

↑ 86,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↑ 86,000

View
100%
84%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$27,196
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↓ 84,000

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$15,604
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ 84,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$12,514
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↓ 84,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,056
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ 84,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,000
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ 92,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$314,753
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

↑ 92,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↑ 88,000

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$308,832
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

↑ 88,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↓ 78,000

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$268,148
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

↓ 78,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↓ 82,000

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$254,785
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

↓ 82,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↓ 80,000

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$220,917
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

↓ 80,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↑ 90,000

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$216,236
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

↑ 90,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↓ 76,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$93,963
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

↓ 76,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↑ 94,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$83,650
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

↑ 94,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↑ 96,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$77,169
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

↑ 96,000

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 34

Intro

This market tracks the probability of Bitcoin reaching $96,000 between September 28th and October 4th. Currently, the aggregated consensus across Limitless and Polymarket gives a 50.0% probability to Bitcoin hitting this price level during that window. A 10.0% probability is given to Bitcoin reaching $92,000 in the same period. Resolution will be determined by Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles, specifically whether a single candle’s high or low price meets the threshold. Keep an eye on trading activity leading up to the end of the betting period on October 4th to see if momentum shifts.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms utilize the same resolution source (Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles) and logic (High/Low price within the specified date range) for all markets.Primary resolution logic: Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT)

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution depends on whether any single 1-minute Binance BTC/USDT candle between 12:00 AM ET on September 28th and 11:59 PM ET on October 4th meets the specified price threshold.
  • For '↑' markets, the final 'High' price of the candle must be equal to or greater than the target price.
  • For '↓' markets, the final 'Low' price of the candle must be equal to or lower than the target price.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Candle Formation: If a candle touches the target price exactly, the market resolves 'Yes' for '↑' markets and 'No' for '↓' markets.
  • Binance Outage: In the event of a prolonged Binance outage during the resolution period, PredictionHero will consult with market participants and potentially consider alternative data sources, but Binance remains the primary source.
Timing: Markets will resolve immediately upon the formation of a 1-minute candle meeting the resolution criteria within the specified date and time range.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

What price will Bitcoin hit September 28-October 4?

Limitless

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last) has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds offer a fascinating alternative to traditional forecasting methods for the Bitcoin price. They represent the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their capital behind their beliefs. This market, for example, reflects what traders believe is the most likely price range for Bitcoin during the specified period, incorporating a wide range of factors. While spot prices are based on current transactions, these markets reflect expectations of future value, potentially factoring in anticipated news, regulatory changes, or market sentiment shifts. The difference between the implied probability and spot price can reveal market optimism or pessimism.