TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 19, 12:03 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the displayed Rotten Tomatoes "All Critics" Tomatometer score for Whalefall is at least equal to the specified number at 10:00 AM ET on October 19, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If, for any reason, the resolution data is unavailable at this market's specified end time, the resolution source will be checked until the relevant data is available. This market will resolve to "No" if no data is available by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the displayed Rotten Tomatoes "All Critics" Tomatometer score for Whalefall is at least equal to the specified number at 10:00 AM ET on October 19, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If, for any reason, the resolution data is unavailable at this market's specified end time, the resolution source will be checked until the relevant data is available. This market will resolve to "No" if no data is available by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a high probability that 'Whalefall' will score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer. This contrasts with some initial analyst forecasts, which were more divided. While pre-release reviews have been mixed, the prediction market indicates a strong belief in a positive critical reception. It's important to remember that prediction markets reflect the collective wisdom of traders, potentially incorporating information not readily available to traditional analysts, and can shift as new information emerges before Oct 19, 2026.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The higher the demand for shares representing a particular score range, the higher the price will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations regarding 'Whalefall'’s Rotten Tomatoes score.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final Rotten Tomatoes score for 'Whalefall' is publicly available and verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the Tomatometer score as published by Rotten Tomatoes, representing the percentage of critics who gave the film a positive review. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or settle their losses based on the final result of this market.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market before Oct 19, 2026. Key among these are the release of early critic reviews, significant shifts in public sentiment based on trailers or promotional materials, and any major news surrounding the film’s production or distribution. Positive early reviews would likely drive up the price of shares predicting a high Rotten Tomatoes score, while negative reviews could have the opposite effect. Unexpected controversies or changes in the release schedule could also introduce volatility into this market.