TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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VMA Best Dance 2026
polymarket

Who will win VMA Best Dance?

Volume:
$59,285

Confessions II – The Film (Madonna)

 - Polymarket

Confessions II – The Film (Madonna) - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 28, 2026

Closed: Sep 27, 11:22 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Confessions II – The Film (Madonna)

View
100%
38%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$7,304
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Stateside + Zara Larsson (PinkPantheress)

View
0%
47%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$44,522
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Dance... (Slayyyter)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,015
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Aperture (Harry Styles)

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,658
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Runway (Lady Gaga and Doechii)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,398
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

New Religion (Bebe Rexha and Faithless)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,289
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Nobody's Girl (Tate McRae)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,100
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

A

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N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
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B

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

C

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

D

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
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E

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

F

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N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
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G

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N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
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H

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N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

I

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N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

J

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N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
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K

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N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

L

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N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

M

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N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
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N

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

P

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Q

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

R

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 34

Description

The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Best Dance. If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Best Dance when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polymarket

The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Best Dance. If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Best Dance when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the VMA Best Dance market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the total volume for this market is $59,285, with $4,418 traded in the last 24 hours. You can see how the probabilities of different artists winning have shifted over time through the price chart. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets, giving insight into the perceived likelihood of each nominee taking home the award. This allows for a dynamic assessment of the market's sentiment.

Currently, there isn't a strong consensus among music analysts regarding the winner of the VMA Best Dance award. Many publications are highlighting several potential frontrunners, making definitive predictions difficult. This market offers a different perspective, aggregating the wisdom of the crowd to produce a probability-based forecast. While analyst opinions can be valuable, they are often subjective. The odds displayed here represent a collective assessment, reflecting the combined judgment of numerous traders. It is interesting to compare this market's implied probabilities with the range of opinions expressed by music critics and commentators.

This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official announcement of the VMA Best Dance award winner by MTV will serve as the basis for determining the winning outcome. The resolution will be based on the official results declared by the award show organizers. Traders who correctly predicted the winner will receive a payout based on the final market odds at the time of resolution. It’s important to monitor the official MTV channels for the announcement to understand when this market will be settled.

Several factors could influence the odds in this market before Sep 28, 2026. New music video releases from nominees, particularly those generating significant buzz, could shift trader sentiment. Positive critical reception or viral trends surrounding a nominee's work could also drive up their odds. Major endorsements from influential artists or celebrities could also impact the market. Furthermore, any news regarding nominee performances or appearances leading up to the VMAs could create movement. Unexpected announcements or controversies could also lead to significant shifts in the probabilities reflected in this market.