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$134.1b

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2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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USS Abraham Lincoln departs CENTCOM by...?
polymarket

USS Abraham Lincoln departs CENTCOM by...?

Volume:
$18,712

August 31

 - Polymarket

August 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 24, 2026

Closed: Aug 23, 9:35 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

August 31

View
100%
10%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$11,605
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

September 15

100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,880
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

September 30

100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,782
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 5h 22m
Yes
polymarket

October 31

100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,734
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 2d
Yes
polymarket

September 8

100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$711
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) departs the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The Lincoln will be considered to have departed the CENTCOM area of responsibility upon confirmation by the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, or U.S. Indo-Pacific Command that the ship has departed the CENTCOM area of responsibility or entered the any other area of operations, or upon a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the ship has physically exited the CENTCOM area of responsibility. The departure must occur by the listed deadline. In the event of ambiguity as to whether the USS Abraham Lincoln left the specified area by the specified time, this market will remain open until the earlier of: (i) confirmation that the USS Abraham Lincoln left the specified area by the listed deadline, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) following the listed deadline. The market will resolve based on the totality of information available at that time. If there is material ambiguity as to whether the USS Abraham Lincoln left the specified area by that time, this market will resolve to “No.” Port calls, temporary stops, crew liberty at an intermediate port, or other movements within the CENTCOM area of responsibility will not qualify. Announcements, orders, schedules, or reports that the ship will depart, is preparing to depart, or is awaiting relief will not qualify absent confirmation that the qualifying departure has occurred. A qualifying departure will count regardless of the ship's subsequent movements or tasking. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States government and military, including the U.S. Navy, the Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, and U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) departs the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The Lincoln will be considered to have departed the CENTCOM area of responsibility upon confirmation by the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, or U.S. Indo-Pacific Command that the ship has departed the CENTCOM area of responsibility or entered the any other area of operations, or upon a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the ship has physically exited the CENTCOM area of responsibility. The departure must occur by the listed deadline. In the event of ambiguity as to whether the USS Abraham Lincoln left the specified area by the specified time, this market will remain open until the earlier of: (i) confirmation that the USS Abraham Lincoln left the specified area by the listed deadline, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) following the listed deadline. The market will resolve based on the totality of information available at that time. If there is material ambiguity as to whether the USS Abraham Lincoln left the specified area by that time, this market will resolve to “No.” Port calls, temporary stops, crew liberty at an intermediate port, or other movements within the CENTCOM area of responsibility will not qualify. Announcements, orders, schedules, or reports that the ship will depart, is preparing to depart, or is awaiting relief will not qualify absent confirmation that the qualifying departure has occurred. A qualifying departure will count regardless of the ship's subsequent movements or tasking. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States government and military, including the U.S. Navy, the Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, and U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, this market shows a strong lean toward an early departure, with traders assigning a high probability to that outcome. Many defense analysts and naval experts have echoed similar expectations, citing operational readiness and strategic redeployment priorities. While analyst reports may vary in tone, the market’s pricing reflects a consensus view among participants about the timeline and conditions influencing the ship’s schedule.

This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public sources. The final determination will hinge on authoritative U.S. Navy announcements, maritime tracking data, and reputable news coverage confirming the ship’s departure status by the specified date.

Key signals that could shift this market include official U.S. Navy deployment orders, geopolitical tensions in the CENTCOM area, maintenance delays or completions, and public statements from military leadership. Any unexpected redeployment orders, operational pauses, or regional security developments may cause rapid adjustments in trading odds as participants reassess probabilities.