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US effective tariff rate for Q2 2026?
polymarket

US effective tariff rate for Q2 2026?

Volume:
$21,107

7%+

 - Polymarket

7%+ - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 30, 2026

Closed: Jul 30, 2:18 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

7%+

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
4.9¢
N/A
$10,162
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

8%+

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
7.9¢
N/A
$4,156
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

5%+

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
4.9¢
N/A
$1,450
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

6%+

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
5¢
N/A
$1,135
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

10%+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,221
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

9%+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,983
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 of 2026 is at least equal to or higher than the listed figure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The total effective tariff rate will be the number reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in the chart titled: "Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties/Current payments to the rest of the world: Imports of goods*100" for Q2 of 2026. This data can be found here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e. In the event that this data is not published by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". Revisions to the published tariff rate after initial publication will not be considered unless the initial data is clearly erroneous (such as due to a technical error or typographical error). The resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 of 2026 is at least equal to or higher than the listed figure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The total effective tariff rate will be the number reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in the chart titled: "Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties/Current payments to the rest of the world: Imports of goods*100" for Q2 of 2026. This data can be found here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e. In the event that this data is not published by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". Revisions to the published tariff rate after initial publication will not be considered unless the initial data is clearly erroneous (such as due to a technical error or typographical error). The resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and price movements for the US tariff rate market on Polymarket, along with a chart of historical pricing and current 24-hour volume of $6,516. It shows how traders on Polymarket are positioning around the likelihood of different effective tariff rates for Q2 2026, offering a live snapshot of market expectations and liquidity.

Currently, this market implies a probability distribution that can be contrasted with the median expectations from major economic research houses and policy analysts. While analysts may publish point estimates or ranges for the effective tariff rate, traders on Polymarket are pricing in a full spectrum of possible outcomes, often reflecting short-term political dynamics and negotiation risks not captured in longer-term forecasts.

This market resolves around Aug 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the effective tariff rate for Q2 2026 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final rate will be determined by official U.S. government data and economic announcements, closing all contracts based on the actual figure.

Key events that could shift pricing in this market include major announcements from U.S. trade representatives, bilateral or multilateral trade agreement updates, shifts in import-export negotiations, and any significant changes in U.S. trade policy rhetoric from elected officials. Economic data releases that affect global trade flows may also influence trader sentiment, as could geopolitical developments that alter import cost structures.