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US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Up or Down on September 8?
polymarket

US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Up or Down on September 8?

Volume:
$23

US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Up or Down on September 8?

 - Polymarket

US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Up or Down on September 8? - Polymarket

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Resolved Sep 8, 2026

Closed: Sep 8, 7:05 PM EST

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US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Up or Down on September 8?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$23
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) on September 8, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 8, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 8, 2026, or if September 8, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FCHF. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) on September 8, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 8, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 8, 2026, or if September 8, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FCHF. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the USD/CHF exchange rate tracks the current implied probability of the exchange rate being higher or lower on Sep 8, 2026. You can view the current odds, along with the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $23. The total volume traded on this market is $23. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and participation regarding the direction of the USD/CHF exchange rate. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how the prediction market is valuing this outcome.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a strong expectation regarding the USD/CHF exchange rate. It’s important to note that these probabilities are derived from the collective wisdom of traders on Polymarket, and may differ from traditional analyst forecasts. Examining the discrepancy between these predictions and those from financial institutions or economic experts can provide valuable insights into market sentiment and potential biases. However, this market represents a distinct forecast based on traders’ willingness to put capital behind their beliefs about the future direction of the exchange rate.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether the USD/CHF exchange rate will be up or down on Sep 8, 2026. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a probability estimate. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants, and the market is highly liquid, allowing for relatively easy entry and exit. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to dynamic price movements.

This market resolves around Sep 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official exchange rate reported at the specified time. This market will determine whether the USD/CHF exchange rate is higher or lower than its value at the start of the market. The final price will be determined by the official exchange rate at the time of resolution, and this information will be publicly available to verify the outcome of this market.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Sep 8, 2026. Major economic data releases from the United States or Switzerland, such as inflation reports, employment figures, or interest rate decisions, could all influence the USD/CHF exchange rate. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in global risk sentiment could also trigger substantial movements. Furthermore, any significant news related to the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve or the Swiss National Bank would likely cause traders to reassess their positions, leading to changes in the price of shares in this market.