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US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Up or Down on September 28?
polymarket

US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Up or Down on September 28?

Volume:
$10

US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Up or Down on September 28?

 - Polymarket

US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Up or Down on September 28? - Polymarket

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Resolved Sep 29, 2026

Closed: Sep 29, 3:19 AM EST

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US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Up or Down on September 28?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) on September 28, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 28, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 28, 2026, or if September 28, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FCHF. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) on September 28, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 28, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 28, 2026, or if September 28, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FCHF. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current implied probability of the USD/CHF exchange rate being higher or lower on Sep 28, 2026. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the trading volume over the past 24 hours, currently at $10. The total volume traded in this market is $10. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and the intensity of trading activity surrounding the direction of the USD/CHF exchange rate. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how predictions are evolving.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for the USD/CHF exchange rate. While many analysts are providing varied predictions based on macroeconomic factors, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a different set of assumptions and information. It’s common to see discrepancies between expert opinions and the collective prediction, as this market incorporates a broader range of data and perspectives. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market expectations.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether the USD/CHF exchange rate will be up or down on Sep 28, 2026. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of that outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price converges towards a consensus view. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds are constantly updated based on the latest information and sentiment.

This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official closing price of the USD/CHF exchange rate on that date. Specifically, it will be determined whether the closing price is higher or lower than the price at the market's launch. This ensures a clear and objective determination of the outcome, based on publicly available financial data. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies for future markets.

Several key signals and events could significantly move this market before Sep 28, 2026. Major economic data releases from both the United States and Switzerland, such as inflation reports, employment figures, and GDP growth rates, will likely influence trader sentiment. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve or the Swiss National Bank could also trigger substantial price movements. Furthermore, any significant news regarding trade relations or global economic outlook could impact the USD/CHF exchange rate and, consequently, this market.