US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR) Up or Down on September 28? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR) Up or Down on September 28?
Start: 2026-09-25T12:01:34.000Z
End: 2026-09-28T21:00:00.000Z

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR) on September 28, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 28, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 28, 2026, or if September 28, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FZAR. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR) on September 28, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 28, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 28, 2026, or if September 28, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FZAR. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current implied probability of the USD/ZAR exchange rate increasing or decreasing by September 28. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the trading volume over the past 24 hours, currently at $10. The total volume traded on this market is $10. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and participation. The dashboard provides a dynamic view of how predictions are evolving as new information becomes available, all focused on the direction of the USD/ZAR exchange rate.

Currently, prediction market odds suggest a strong consensus regarding the future direction of the USD/ZAR exchange rate. It's important to note that these probabilities represent the collective wisdom of traders on Polymarket, and may differ from the opinions of financial analysts. While analyst forecasts often rely on economic models and fundamental analysis, this market reflects real-money bets on the outcome. Comparing this market to prevailing analyst expectations can provide a broader perspective on potential movements in the exchange rate, but it’s crucial to consider the different methodologies behind each.

This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the direction of the USD/ZAR exchange rate on September 28, as reported by a widely recognized financial data provider. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their prediction aligned with the actual change in the exchange rate. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market's outcome, based on publicly available data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Sep 28, 2026. Major economic data releases from both the United States and South Africa, such as inflation reports, employment figures, and GDP growth rates, could all impact the USD/ZAR exchange rate. Geopolitical events, shifts in global risk sentiment, and changes in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve or the South African Reserve Bank are also potential catalysts. Unexpected news or developments related to either country's political stability or economic outlook could also cause substantial movement in this market.

US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR) Up or Down on September 28?

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