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US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) Up or Down on September 28?
polymarket

US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) Up or Down on September 28?

Volume:
$10

US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) Up or Down on September 28?

 - Polymarket

US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) Up or Down on September 28? - Polymarket

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Resolved Sep 29, 2026

Closed: Sep 29, 3:31 AM EST

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US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) Up or Down on September 28?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) on September 28, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 28, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 28, 2026, or if September 28, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FNOK. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) on September 28, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 28, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 28, 2026, or if September 28, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FNOK. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current implied probability of the USD/NOK exchange rate increasing or decreasing by September 28. You’ll find a live feed of trading volume, currently at $10 over the last 24 hours, and the total volume traded to date is $10. The dashboard also displays the current odds, reflecting what traders are willing to pay to bet on either outcome. This provides a real-time view of market sentiment regarding the future direction of the USD/NOK exchange rate.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for the USD/NOK exchange rate. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a probability distribution of potential outcomes. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, information access, and biases. It’s important to note that analyst forecasts are often based on economic models, while this market reflects real-time speculation and incorporates a broader range of factors.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether the USD/NOK exchange rate will be up or down on September 28. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts, providing a dynamic assessment of market expectations. The current price indicates the collective judgment of traders on Polymarket.

This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official closing exchange rate for the USD/NOK pair on September 28, as reported by a widely recognized financial data provider. If the exchange rate is higher than its value at the start of the day, the 'Up' outcome will prevail; otherwise, the 'Down' outcome will be considered the result. The market’s outcome is determined by this publicly available data.

Several key signals and events could significantly influence this market before Sep 28, 2026. Major economic data releases from both the United States and Norway, such as inflation reports, GDP figures, and employment numbers, are likely to impact the USD/NOK exchange rate. Unexpected shifts in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve or Norges Bank could also trigger substantial price movements. Geopolitical events and fluctuations in global oil prices, given Norway’s position as a major oil producer, are additional factors to watch that could affect this market.