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US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on September 28?
polymarket

US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on September 28?

Volume:
$10

US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on September 28?

 - Polymarket

US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on September 28? - Polymarket

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Resolved Sep 29, 2026

Closed: Sep 29, 3:47 AM EST

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US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on September 28?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) on September 28, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 28, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 28, 2026, or if September 28, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FMXN. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) on September 28, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 28, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 28, 2026, or if September 28, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FMXN. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current implied probability of the USD/MXN exchange rate increasing or decreasing by September 28. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the total volume traded, currently at $10, and the 24-hour volume, which is $9. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and trading activity related to the future direction of the exchange rate. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how PredictionHero users are forecasting this financial event.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts regarding the USD/MXN exchange rate. While some analysts predict a continued strengthening of the dollar, this market shows a more nuanced view, with traders weighing various economic factors and geopolitical risks. It's important to remember that analysts often rely on models and historical data, while this market represents the collective intelligence of individuals actively speculating on the outcome. This difference highlights the potential value of prediction markets as a forward-looking indicator.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether the USD/MXN exchange rate will be up or down on September 28. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts accordingly, providing a dynamic and real-time assessment of market expectations. The current volume traded indicates significant interest in this particular financial forecast.

This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official exchange rate reported by a widely recognized financial data provider at the specified time. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on whether their prediction aligned with the actual movement of the USD/MXN exchange rate. The final price will reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd leading up to the resolution date.

Several key signals and events could significantly move this market before Sep 28, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases from either the United States or Mexico, such as inflation reports or GDP figures, could influence investor sentiment. Geopolitical developments, including changes in trade policy or political instability, also have the potential to impact the exchange rate. Furthermore, statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy could trigger shifts in market expectations. Any surprise announcements or unforeseen events could lead to substantial price fluctuations in this market.