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US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on November 2?
polymarket

US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on November 2?

Oct 30, 2026, 8:01 AM EST - Nov 2, 2026, 5:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$5
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$1,896
1,895,596%
Open interest:
$5N/A

US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on November 2?

 - Polymarket

US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on November 2? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 2, 2026

US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on November 2?

100%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 100% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: N/A Illiquid market
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on November 2?

Trade
100%
50%
Yes 100¢No 0.1¢
0.1¢
$1,896
$5
0%
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Disputed
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) on November 2, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including November 2, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on November 2, 2026, or if November 2, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FJPY. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) on November 2, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including November 2, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on November 2, 2026, or if November 2, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FJPY. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the USD/JPY exchange rate tracks the current implied probability of the exchange rate being higher or lower on Nov 2, 2026. You’ll find the current odds reflecting traders’ beliefs, along with a price history showing how those odds have changed over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour volume, indicating how much trading activity this market has seen recently. Currently, the volume is $5 and the total volume is $5.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a roughly 50% chance of the USD/JPY exchange rate being higher or lower on Nov 2, 2026. This contrasts with typical analyst forecasts, which often rely on economic indicators and technical analysis to predict currency movements. It’s important to note that prediction markets represent a collective intelligence, aggregating the views of many traders, while analyst forecasts are individual opinions. Discrepancies between this market and analyst predictions can highlight differing interpretations of the same information or unique insights from market participants.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether the USD/JPY exchange rate will be up or down on Nov 2, 2026. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of that outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the market’s collective assessment of the likelihood of the event happening, and traders adjust their positions based on new information and their own analysis.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official exchange rate for the USD/JPY pair at a specified time on that date. Traders who correctly predicted the direction of the exchange rate will receive a payout based on the odds at the time of their trade, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their stake. This provides a clear incentive for accurate forecasting.

Several key signals and events could significantly impact this market before Nov 2, 2026. Major economic data releases from both the United States and Japan, such as inflation reports, employment figures, and GDP growth rates, are likely to influence trader sentiment. Unexpected policy announcements from the Federal Reserve or the Bank of Japan regarding interest rates or quantitative easing could also trigger substantial price movements. Geopolitical events and shifts in global risk appetite could also play a role, as the USD/JPY pair is often seen as a safe-haven currency.