US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on August 31? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on August 31?
Start: 2026-08-28T12:01:08.000Z
End: 2026-08-31T21:00:00.000Z

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) on August 31, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including August 31, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on August 31, 2026, or if August 31, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FJPY. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) on August 31, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including August 31, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on August 31, 2026, or if August 31, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FJPY. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the USD/JPY direction market dashboard tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $128. It shows how traders on Polymarket are positioning around the currency pair’s movement by Aug 31, 2026. The interface updates continuously, letting users monitor shifts in sentiment and liquidity as the market approaches its resolution date.

Currently, this market reflects a strong bias toward one direction, with limited contrary exposure. That contrasts with many traditional analyst forecasts, which often present a more balanced or neutral view. Traders on Polymarket are pricing in specific expectations about monetary policy and economic data releases, whereas analysts may weigh a broader set of variables, including geopolitical risks and longer-term trends.

This market resolves around Aug 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders will watch key economic indicators, central bank announcements, and currency exchange rate fixes that determine whether the pair moves up or down over the specified period. The result is binary — one side wins, the other loses — based on the closing value at the appointed time.

Several signals could shift this market before Aug 31, 2026. Major economic data releases — such as U.S. and Japanese inflation figures, employment reports, or GDP updates — often trigger rapid re-pricing. Central bank decisions, especially from the Federal Reserve or Bank of Japan, heavily influence currency expectations. Geopolitical developments and market sentiment swings may also create volatility, causing traders on Polymarket to adjust their positions quickly.

US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on August 31?

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