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US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on August 10?
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US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on August 10?

Volume:
$122

US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on August 10?

 - Polymarket

US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on August 10? - Polymarket

1W

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·

Resolved Aug 10, 2026

Closed: Aug 10, 7:01 PM EST

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US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on August 10?

View
100%
42%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$122
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) on August 10, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including August 10, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on August 10, 2026, or if August 10, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FJPY. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) on August 10, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including August 10, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on August 10, 2026, or if August 10, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FJPY. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, this dashboard tracks the current odds and price history for the USD/JPY exchange rate market, along with 24-hour volume of $122. It shows how traders on Polymarket are positioning around the exchange rate movement, offering a live snapshot of market sentiment and trading activity for this specific event.

On Polymarket, this market currently reflects trader sentiment through dynamic odds that shift with market activity and news. Analyst forecasts for the USD/JPY exchange rate market often consider economic indicators, central bank policies, and geopolitical factors. While analysts may provide detailed reports and target levels, prediction market odds offer a real-time, crowd-sourced probability that can diverge from traditional forecasts. These differences arise because market participants bet on immediate expectations and short-term movements, whereas analysts typically focus on longer-term trends and fundamental analysis. Comparing both can provide a comprehensive view of market sentiment versus expert predictions.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders determine the price through active buying and selling of contracts representing the possible outcomes. The current odds reflect the collective belief about whether the USD/JPY exchange rate market will move up or down by Aug 10, 2026. Volume of $122 over the last 24 hours indicates trader interest and liquidity. Prices adjust continuously based on new information, such as economic data releases, policy announcements, and currency market trends. This mechanism allows participants to bet on their expectations with the market pricing updating to reflect the latest consensus among active traders.

This market resolves around Aug 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final settlement will depend on the official closing exchange rate, determined independently and announced shortly after the event date, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution for all participants.

Key signals include central bank announcements, especially from the Federal Reserve or Bank of Japan, shifts in interest rate expectations, geopolitical developments impacting trade flows, and broader risk-on or risk-off sentiment in global financial markets. Economic data releases such as U.S. nonfarm payrolls or Japanese CPI figures could also strongly influence trader positioning in this market.