This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for the US Dollar Index (DXY) on October 5, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the US Dollar Index (DXY) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the reference price for the US Dollar Index (DXY) on October 5, 2026 is lower than the reference price for the US Dollar Index (DXY) on the most recent prior trading day. For each trading day, the reference price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (closing at 5:00 PM ET) on that date. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent reference price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. If the two specified reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the US Dollar Index (DXY) does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, this market will resolve 50-50. Trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth. Under the standard schedule (time zone America/New_York), trading is open continuously from 5:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with no daily settlement break, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth. If a listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. Under the standard New York 5:00 PM FX close convention, each trading day begins at 5:00 PM ET on the preceding calendar day and ends at 5:00 PM ET on that calendar day. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth "Close" value for the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (closing at 5:00 PM ET), the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved prior to 4:59 PM ET during that trading day as the effective reference price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the reference price for that day may be determined using the official settlement value for the spot U.S. Dollar Index for that trading day, as published by ICE Futures U.S. in its "Futures Daily Market Report for US Dollar Index" dated as of that trading day. This report may be accessed by selecting "End of Day Report" under the "Reports" tab of the product page at https://www.ice.com/products/194/US-Dollar-Index-Futures. The relevant value is the one shown in the "Settle Price" column for the row with Commodity Name "DX" and Contract Month "SPOT". If no such spot settlement value is published for that trading day, the "Settle Price" value shown in the same report for the most actively traded (by open interest) ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract month (ticker DX) may be used instead. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session will be considered. In the event of an index methodology change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candles available at https://app.pyth.com/explore/FX.USDXY. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the US Dollar Index market tracks the current odds of the index being higher or lower on October 5. You can view the implied probabilities for each outcome, along with the total volume traded, currently at $356, and the 24-hour volume, which is $356. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how participants are pricing the future direction of the US Dollar Index.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for the US Dollar Index. While many analysts are predicting a slight strengthening of the dollar due to recent economic data, this market reflects a more nuanced view, incorporating a wider range of potential outcomes. It’s important to note that analysts often rely on models and assumptions, whereas this market represents the collective wisdom of traders directly expressing their beliefs about the future. This difference in methodology can lead to diverging viewpoints on the index's trajectory.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether the US Dollar Index will be up or down on October 5. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective forecast of all participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer we get to the resolution date, the more the price will converge towards either 100 (if the market believes the index will be up) or 0 (if the market believes it will be down). Volume plays a key role, indicating the strength of conviction behind the current price.

This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the closing value of the US Dollar Index on October 5 is higher or lower than its value at the market's creation. The final price will reflect the prevailing market consensus at that time. Traders should monitor economic indicators and geopolitical events leading up to the resolution date, as these factors could influence the index's performance and, therefore, the outcome of this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 5, 2026. Key US economic data releases, such as the monthly jobs report or inflation figures, will likely have a substantial impact. Unexpected geopolitical events, including shifts in global trade tensions or major political developments, could also cause volatility. Furthermore, any announcements from the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, such as interest rate adjustments or quantitative easing measures, are likely to influence the US Dollar Index and, consequently, trading activity in this market. Monitoring these factors is crucial for informed trading.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Up or Down on October 5?

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