US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL) Up or Down on September 28? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL) Up or Down on September 28?
Start: 2026-09-25T12:01:36.000Z
End: 2026-09-28T21:00:00.000Z

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL) on September 28, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 28, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 28, 2026, or if September 28, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FBRL. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL) on September 28, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 28, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 28, 2026, or if September 28, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FBRL. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current implied probability of the USD/BRL exchange rate being higher or lower on September 28th. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the trading volume over the past 24 hours, currently at $10. The total volume traded on this market is $10. This allows users to quickly assess market sentiment and trading activity surrounding the direction of the exchange rate, providing insight into what traders believe will happen before the resolution date.

Currently, prediction market odds suggest a strong consensus regarding the future direction of the USD/BRL exchange rate. It's important to note that these probabilities represent the collective wisdom of traders on Polymarket and may differ from traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates diverse opinions into a single probability. Comparing this market to external forecasts reveals how traders weigh various economic indicators and geopolitical factors when predicting the exchange rate’s movement.

This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official exchange rate between the US Dollar and the Brazilian Real at a specified time on September 28th. The exact time and source for determining the exchange rate will be detailed in the market’s documentation on Polymarket. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies based on the verified result.

Several factors could significantly influence the price of shares in this market before Sep 28, 2026. Major economic data releases from both the United States and Brazil, such as inflation reports, GDP figures, and employment numbers, are key catalysts. Unexpected political developments in either country, including policy changes or shifts in government leadership, could also trigger price movements. Furthermore, global risk sentiment and fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly oil, can impact the USD/BRL exchange rate and, consequently, this market.

US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL) Up or Down on September 28?

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