US bank failure by December 31, 2026? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: US bank failure by December 31, 2026?
Start: 2026-08-24T23:13:06.000Z
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the US bank failure market tracks the current odds of a major U.S. bank collapsing before the end of 2026. It shows price history, recent fluctuations, and 24-hour volume of $1,207. This real-time view helps traders monitor sentiment and liquidity around the possibility of a systemic banking event in the United States.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. A confirmed failure — typically defined as a federally insured U.S. bank being taken into receivership or similar resolution — will settle the market. No further clarification of settlement mechanics is required beyond publicly observable facts.

US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

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