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Tropical Storm Odalys strengthens to a hurricane?
⌛Ending Soon
polymarket

Tropical Storm Odalys strengthens to a hurricane?

Volume:
$2,865

Tropical Storm Odalys strengthens to a hurricane?

 - Polymarket

Tropical Storm Odalys strengthens to a hurricane? - Polymarket

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Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 23, 2026

Closed: Sep 23, 7:35 PM EST

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Tropical Storm Odalys strengthens to a hurricane?

View
100%
21%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
2¢
N/A
$2,865
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 7h 36m
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Odalys reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Odalys reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times. If Odalys does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Odalys is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Odalys reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Odalys reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times. If Odalys does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Odalys is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Hurricane Odalys market tracks the current odds that Tropical Storm Odalys will strengthen into a hurricane. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probability has shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the total volume for this market is $2,865, with $310 traded in the last day. This allows you to see how actively traders are responding to new information and forecasts regarding the storm’s potential intensification.

Currently, the odds in this market reflect a collective assessment of whether Tropical Storm Odalys will become a hurricane. These probabilities are often compared to forecasts from meteorologists and other weather analysts. If analysts predict a high chance of intensification, we’d generally expect to see the ‘yes’ side of this market increase in price, and vice versa. However, prediction markets can sometimes incorporate information *before* it’s reflected in traditional forecasts, representing a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ effect. It’s a useful comparison to see how the market’s view aligns with expert opinions.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing ‘yes’ or ‘no’ outcomes, and the price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand. As more people believe Odalys will become a hurricane, the price of ‘yes’ shares increases, and the price of ‘no’ shares decreases. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing reflects the aggregated beliefs of all participants, creating a real-time probability assessment of the event occurring. The current price essentially represents the market’s estimate of the likelihood of the storm strengthening.

This market resolves around Oct 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on whether the National Hurricane Center (or a similar authoritative meteorological agency) officially designates Tropical Storm Odalys as a hurricane. The determination will be based on sustained wind speeds and other meteorological criteria as defined by these agencies. The final outcome will be a clear ‘yes’ or ‘no’ based on this official designation.

Several factors could significantly influence the price of this market. Updates from the National Hurricane Center regarding the storm’s track, intensity forecasts, and any observed changes in wind speed are key drivers. Unexpected shifts in the storm’s path, particularly towards populated areas, could also increase trading activity and price volatility. Additionally, reports of early intensification or weakening, or even changes in broader weather patterns affecting the storm, could all contribute to movement in this market. Any new data released before Oct 1, 2026 will likely be reflected in the trading activity.