TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.8b

24H VOL:

$153,964,051

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,815,744,871

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,809,858,743

498,684

Markets across

37,244

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,831

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Total commitments for the 1win ($1w) public sale
polymarket

Will commitments exceed the value?

Oct 16, 2026, 3:54 PM EST - Nov 2, 2026, 11:59 PM EST

$10M

 - Polymarket

$10M - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 2, 2026

Time left: 09d:14h:07m

Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $10M?

91%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 91.9¢ buys you 109 shares | Odds: 91% Total Payout: $109 | Net Profit: $9 Multiplier: 1.09x | ROI: 9% High Projected APY: 2,080% 9 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

$10M

Trade
91%
Yes 91.9¢No 10.6¢
2.5¢
$15,792
$29,098
42%
3,242%
N/A
1w 2d 14h
active
polymarket

$15M

Trade
87%
2%
Yes 89¢No 16¢
5¢
$7,258
$24,690
38%
1,274%
N/A
1w 2d 14h
active
polymarket

$20M

Trade
73%
Yes 75¢No 29¢
4¢
$9,959
$22,274
20%
1,655%
N/A
1w 2d 14h
active
polymarket

$30M

Trade
58%
Yes 59¢No 43¢
2¢
$3,891
$29,264
40%
1,482%
N/A
1w 2d 14h
active
polymarket

$40M

Trade
43%
4%
Yes 43¢No 58¢
1¢
$3,911
$31,026
9%
1,403%
N/A
1w 2d 14h
active
polymarket

$60M

Trade
26%
3%
Yes 27¢No 76¢
3¢
$4,404
$57,511
18%
822%
N/A
1w 2d 14h
active
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if total commitments to the official 1W public sale exceed the specified value at any point before November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the headline pool total displayed on the official 1W Token Sale page at https://1wtoken.com/ (the "US$[amount] of US$[allocation]" figure). Total commitments refers to this gross pool amount, including any oversubscription above the sale's allocation, and not the final allocated amount after excess deposits are refunded. If the sale page displays only a net or allocated figure rather than the gross pool amount, official announcements of the gross amount from 1W will be used. The sale accepts deposits in US dollar stablecoins (USDC), which are counted as US dollars at 1:1. If the displayed figure exceeds the specified value at any point before November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of subsequent refunds or cancellations. A displayed figure exactly equal to the specified value will not qualify. If the figure on the sale page is unavailable, official announcements from 1W (https://x.com/1winToken) may be used; if no official figure is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If no commitment total is verifiable by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, including because the sale is put on hold, cancelled, or rescheduled to a time past that date, this market will resolve to "No". If requisite information for this market's resolution becomes permanently unavailable within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". If the sale is extended before the official closing time, commitments made during the extended period will count toward resolution, provided the displayed figure exceeds the specified value before November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if total commitments to the official 1W public sale exceed the specified value at any point before November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the headline pool total displayed on the official 1W Token Sale page at https://1wtoken.com/ (the "US$[amount] of US$[allocation]" figure). Total commitments refers to this gross pool amount, including any oversubscription above the sale's allocation, and not the final allocated amount after excess deposits are refunded. If the sale page displays only a net or allocated figure rather than the gross pool amount, official announcements of the gross amount from 1W will be used. The sale accepts deposits in US dollar stablecoins (USDC), which are counted as US dollars at 1:1. If the displayed figure exceeds the specified value at any point before November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of subsequent refunds or cancellations. A displayed figure exactly equal to the specified value will not qualify. If the figure on the sale page is unavailable, official announcements from 1W (https://x.com/1winToken) may be used; if no official figure is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If no commitment total is verifiable by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, including because the sale is put on hold, cancelled, or rescheduled to a time past that date, this market will resolve to "No". If requisite information for this market's resolution becomes permanently unavailable within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". If the sale is extended before the official closing time, commitments made during the extended period will count toward resolution, provided the displayed figure exceeds the specified value before November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the 1win public sale tracks the probabilities of whether total commitments will exceed various thresholds. Currently, the most likely outcome, with a chance of 90.6%, is that commitments will exceed $15M. The dashboard also displays the trading volume, which is currently $39,038 over the last 24 hours, and the total volume traded to date is $193,863. You can view the price history to see how the market has evolved and gauge trader sentiment regarding the 1win public sale.

Currently, the implied probability of commitments exceeding $15M in the 1win public sale, as reflected by this market, aligns with some analyst expectations for strong participation. However, it’s important to note that prediction market odds represent a forward-looking assessment of probability, incorporating a wider range of information and potential outcomes than simple spot price expectations. These odds are dynamic and will shift as new information becomes available, offering a real-time gauge of collective belief about the 1win public sale’s success.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome of the 1win public sale. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of the event occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price is determined by the forces of supply and demand; if more traders believe commitments will exceed a certain threshold, the price of shares representing that outcome will increase, and vice versa. This creates a dynamic pricing mechanism that aggregates the wisdom of the crowd.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total commitments for the 1win public sale are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final amount of commitments raised during the public sale will be the determining factor, and this information will be sourced from official announcements made by 1win. The market will then settle based on whether the final commitment amount exceeds the thresholds defined within the market’s parameters.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major announcements from 1win regarding the public sale, such as changes to the terms or the addition of prominent investors, would likely cause price movement. Broader market sentiment towards crypto assets and initial coin offerings (ICOs) could also play a role, as could news related to regulatory developments impacting the crypto space. Positive or negative press coverage surrounding 1win and the public sale could also shift trader sentiment and influence the odds in this market.