TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Tesla (TSLA) closes above ___ on November 2?
polymarket

Will TSLA close above the price on November 2?

Volume:
$11,687

$390

 - Polymarket

$390 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 6:21 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

$390

View
100%
16%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7,703
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$380

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,216
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$400

View
100%
56%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$254
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$370

View
100%
33%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$59
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$410

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,456
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on November 2, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSD.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on November 2, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSD.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Tesla stock price market displays the current implied probability of the stock closing above a certain price on November 2nd. It also tracks the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $7,962, and the total volume traded to date, which is $11,687. Users can view the price history of the contracts, allowing them to analyze how the market's expectations have shifted over time. This provides a clear overview of how traders are assessing the likelihood of the specified outcome for Tesla’s stock.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market reflects traders’ collective assessment of Tesla’s potential stock performance. This differs from traditional analyst forecasts, which often rely on fundamental and technical analysis. While analysts may provide price targets based on financial models, this market represents a real-money view of what will happen. It’s important to note that prediction market prices are dynamic and can change rapidly based on new information or shifts in market sentiment, offering a distinct perspective compared to static analyst reports.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a contract directly corresponds to the implied probability of the stock closing above the specified price on November 2nd. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading activity influence the price, with higher volume generally indicating greater confidence in the predicted outcome. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to a dynamic price that reflects the latest information and perspectives.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of Tesla (TSLA) stock on November 2nd will be used to determine whether the market resolves in favor of the affirmative outcome (closing above the specified price) or the negative outcome (closing at or below the specified price). The resolution will be based on a widely recognized financial data source, ensuring an objective and transparent determination of the result.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Nov 2, 2026. Major news regarding Tesla’s production numbers, vehicle deliveries, or financial performance would likely cause price fluctuations. Any announcements related to Elon Musk, regulatory changes affecting the electric vehicle industry, or broader macroeconomic trends could also move the market. Unexpected events, such as supply chain disruptions or significant competitor announcements, could also play a role in shifting traders’ expectations and influencing the price of contracts in this market.