TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 19, 11:03 PM EST
'%3e%3ccircle%20cx='26'%20cy='26'%20r='26'%20fill='%23000'/%3e%3cpath%20fill='%23fff'%20d='M27.6629%2037.9855L31.004%2037.6925L32.1989%2051.3689C33.72%2051.027%2035.2073%2050.5486%2036.6425%2049.9395V37.8085H40.7697V47.7178C42.4942%2046.577%2044.0775%2045.236%2045.4865%2043.7226L46.0172%2037.6591L49.5548%2037.9678C51.5707%2034.0725%2052.5697%2029.7306%2052.4591%2025.3456C52.3484%2020.9605%2051.1317%2016.6746%2048.9219%2012.886L48.7903%2014.392L44.6631%2014.0303L45.1937%207.97067C43.8569%206.58147%2042.3706%205.34447%2040.7619%204.28222V14.2406H36.6347V2.06247C34.8743%201.313%2033.0358%200.762345%2031.1533%200.420753L32.3463%2014.0637L29.0052%2014.3566L27.7513%200.0314647C27.3308%200.0118035%2026.9062%200%2026.4817%200C24.8262%204.44017e-06%2023.1745%200.157349%2021.5487%200.469906L23.9072%2013.8985L21.364%2014.3468L19.0253%201.0853C16.8454%201.73668%2014.7611%202.67345%2012.8266%203.87129L15.4601%2013.7019L13.4634%2014.2387L11.0146%205.09226C9.12509%206.49278%207.43337%208.1422%205.98527%209.99577L7.26077%2013.5014L5.80446%2014.0322L4.88665%2011.5097C3.41845%2013.6953%202.29182%2016.092%201.54558%2018.6172L1.95829%2018.4678L7.2647%2033.0387L5.80839%2033.5696L1.06407%2020.5303C-0.0225105%2025.6016%200.430464%2030.8821%202.36486%2035.6941C4.29926%2040.5061%207.62683%2044.6301%2011.9206%2047.5369L9.45605%2038.3355L11.4528%2037.7987L14.4677%2049.0567C16.5333%2050.1354%2018.7355%2050.9291%2021.0142%2051.4161L18.6892%2038.1605L21.2343%2037.7122L23.7283%2051.8683C24.6462%2051.9654%2025.5686%2052.014%2026.4916%2052.0138C27.2954%2052.0138%2028.0933%2051.9764%2028.8795%2051.9037L27.6629%2037.9855Z'%20/%3e%3cpath%20fill='%23000'%20d='M46.0368%2018.1276L50.1542%2018.4875L48.804%2033.9372L44.6768%2033.5774L46.0368%2018.1276ZM36.6484%2018.279H40.7756V33.7858H36.6484V18.279ZM31.0099%2018.1611L32.3601%2033.6109L29.019%2033.9038L27.6668%2018.454L31.0099%2018.1611ZM13.481%2033.7898L9.4698%2018.8099L11.4666%2018.2751L15.4778%2033.2452L13.481%2033.7898ZM21.3817%2033.892L18.6892%2018.6211L21.2343%2018.1729L23.9248%2033.4418L21.3817%2033.892Z'%20/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e){kind=avatar}
Opinion
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official "Close" price for Tesla (TSLA) on the trading day specified in the title is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. A "Close" exactly equal to the specified price resolves to "No". If the market is not open on the specified day (exchange holiday or unscheduled closure), or Tesla (TSLA) does not trade at all during that day's regular session, this market resolves 50-50 — each side is paid at half value; this is not a refund. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Tesla (TSLA), this market resolves on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in the title is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Tesla (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/ under "Historical Prices". If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Tesla (TSLA) trades governs.
Opinion
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official "Close" price for Tesla (TSLA) on the trading day specified in the title is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. A "Close" exactly equal to the specified price resolves to "No". If the market is not open on the specified day (exchange holiday or unscheduled closure), or Tesla (TSLA) does not trade at all during that day's regular session, this market resolves 50-50 — each side is paid at half value; this is not a refund. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Tesla (TSLA), this market resolves on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in the title is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Tesla (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/ under "Historical Prices". If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Tesla (TSLA) trades governs.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market participants believe there is a significant chance Tesla’s stock will exceed a certain level by Oct 19, 2026. This contrasts with traditional analyst forecasts, which often rely on financial modeling and company reports. While analysts provide detailed reports and price targets, this market offers a different perspective – a real-money view of what traders believe will happen. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas of disagreement or unique insights held by market participants, offering a broader view of potential outcomes.
On Opinion, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the Tesla stock price will be above a certain level on Oct 19, 2026. The price of these contracts reflects the probability of that outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Opinion, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe the stock will rise, the higher the price of the contracts, and vice versa. This creates a dynamic pricing mechanism that aggregates the wisdom of the crowd.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final stock price of Tesla (TSLA) will be checked against the predetermined level. If the stock price is above that level at the close of trading on the resolution date, the market will settle in favor of the 'yes' outcome. The outcome is based on publicly available data and is not dependent on any subjective interpretation or individual judgment.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 19, 2026. Major announcements from Tesla regarding production numbers, new product launches, or financial results would likely cause price swings. Broader economic news, such as interest rate changes or shifts in the overall stock market, could also play a role. Unexpected news related to electric vehicle demand, government regulations, or competitor actions could also move the market. Any significant event impacting investor sentiment towards Tesla or the automotive industry could alter the probabilities reflected in this market.
