TOTAL VOLUME:
$147.2b
24H VOL:
$139,262,101
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,798,566,680
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,770,072,055
512,063
Markets across
38,451
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,850
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
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Tesla Roadster delivered by December 31, 2027?
$
Description
This group forecasts whether Tesla will deliver a next-generation Roadster to a qualifying customer by a specific date. Qualifying deliveries must be to members of the general public via a bona fide retail transaction, excluding deliveries to employees, subsidiaries, or for promotional purposes. The markets specify different delivery-by dates.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All platforms use the same definition of a qualifying delivery and rely on the same resolution sources, differing only on the target delivery date.Primary resolution logic: Official information from Tesla; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Core resolution logic:
- A delivery must be a physical handover of a production vehicle.
- The recipient must be a qualifying customer (member of the general public with a bona fide retail purchase).
- Deliveries to Tesla employees, subsidiaries, or for promotional purposes do not qualify.
- Unveilings, announcements, or production starts do not qualify on their own.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Celebrity Deliveries: A single handover to a recipient selected by Tesla outside its public order or reservation process (e.g., a celebrity delivery ahead of deliveries to reservation holders) will not qualify.
- Founders Series: Deliveries of the Founders Series Roadster, or any other trim/edition, will qualify as long as they meet the general qualifying customer criteria.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Tesla has delivered at least one Roadster to a qualifying customer by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Roadster" refers to the next-generation Tesla Roadster unveiled on November 16, 2017, in any trim or edition, including the Founders Series, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the Roadster. The original Tesla Roadster produced from 2008 to 2012 will not qualify. A delivery means the physical handover of a production vehicle to a qualifying customer, in any region. A qualifying customer must be a member of the general public, including a reservation holder, who has purchased the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Deliveries to Tesla or SpaceX employees, executives, directors, or their family members, to subsidiaries or internal entities, or for promotional, testing, demonstration, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify. A single handover to a recipient selected by Tesla outside its public order or reservation process (for example a celebrity delivery ahead of deliveries to reservation holders) will not qualify. Unveilings, demonstrations, test rides, prototype displays, announced delivery dates, and production announcements will not qualify on their own; a completed delivery meeting the above criteria must occur within this market's timeframe. Confirmation of the delivery must occur within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Opinion
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Tesla has delivered at least one Roadster to a qualifying customer by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Roadster" refers to the next-generation Tesla Roadster unveiled on November 16, 2017, in any trim or edition, including the Founders Series, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the Roadster. The original Tesla Roadster produced from 2008 to 2012 will not qualify. A delivery means the physical handover of a production vehicle to a qualifying customer, in any region. A qualifying customer must be a member of the general public, including a reservation holder, who has purchased the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Deliveries to Tesla or SpaceX employees, executives, directors, or their family members, to subsidiaries or internal entities, or for promotional, testing, demonstration, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify. A single handover to a recipient selected by Tesla outside its public order or reservation process (for example a celebrity delivery ahead of deliveries to reservation holders) will not qualify. Unveilings, demonstrations, test rides, prototype displays, announced delivery dates, and production announcements will not qualify on their own; a completed delivery meeting the above criteria must occur within this market's timeframe. Confirmation of the delivery must occur within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ that can differ from traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may rely on company statements and production timelines, whereas this market incorporates a broader range of information and potential disruptions, as assessed by traders. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when considering factors like manufacturing challenges, supply chain issues, or unexpected delays. The collective insight within this market offers a unique perspective on the likelihood of the Tesla Roadster being delivered on time.
Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Opinion may differ due to variations in trader demographics, market liquidity, and the specific incentives offered by each platform. Polymarket has a higher trading volume, which can lead to more efficient price discovery, while Opinion may attract a different set of participants with varying risk appetites and information sets. These factors contribute to the observed price discrepancies in the Tesla Roadster delivery market, reflecting diverse perspectives on the event’s probability.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the date the first Tesla Roadster is officially delivered to a customer, as verified against credible public sources. The market will determine whether the delivery occurred by any of the specified dates offered within the market. The final price will reflect the consensus view of traders on when this event will occur, providing a clear record of expectations leading up to the resolution date.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Announcements from Tesla regarding production timelines, battery technology advancements, or logistical updates would be key catalysts. Unexpected delays in production or supply chain disruptions could push prices toward later delivery dates. Positive news, such as successful test drives or confirmation of delivery schedules, could drive prices lower. Broader economic conditions and shifts in investor sentiment towards Tesla could also influence trading activity in this market. Any official communication from Tesla regarding the Roadster’s delivery schedule will likely cause a substantial price movement.
