TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Up or Down - October 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET
predict

Will TSM/USDT be up or down by October 27?

Volume:
$99

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Up or Down - October 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

 - Predict

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Up or Down - October 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 1:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Up or Down - October 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$109
$99
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the TSM/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the TSM/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the TSM/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/tsm-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink TSM/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T17:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the TSM/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the TSM/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the TSM/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/tsm-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink TSM/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-27T17:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the TSMC stock market tracks the current odds of the stock going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume displayed, currently at $98, and the total volume traded to date, which is $99. This allows you to see how much activity there is in this market and how traders are currently positioning themselves. The dashboard provides a real-time view of market sentiment regarding TSMC’s performance.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders on Predict offers a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for TSMC. While analysts often provide point estimates or ratings (buy, sell, hold), this market aggregates diverse opinions into a probability-based forecast. It's important to note that analysts may focus on longer-term projections, while this market reflects expectations for the specific period leading up to Oct 27, 2026. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, information access, and inherent biases in each approach.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the TSMC stock will be up or down by the specified time. The price of these contracts directly reflects the probability of that outcome, as perceived by the market participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe the stock will go up, the higher the price of the 'up' contracts, and vice-versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds are constantly updated based on the latest information and sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the TSMC stock price has increased or decreased during the 1:30PM-1:45PM ET window on October 27th. The final stock price at 1:45PM ET will be compared to the price at 1:30PM ET to determine the outcome of this market. The result will be publicly available shortly after the close of trading on that day.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves on Oct 27, 2026. Major announcements from TSMC regarding earnings, production capacity, or new technologies would likely have a substantial impact. Broader macroeconomic factors, such as changes in global economic growth forecasts or interest rate decisions, could also influence investor sentiment towards the semiconductor industry. Geopolitical events, particularly those affecting Taiwan or international trade, represent another potential catalyst. Unexpected news related to key TSMC customers, like Apple, could also shift the odds.