TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$323,326,361

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,969,435,260

419,363

Markets across

40,411

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Up or Down - October 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
predict

Will TSM/USDT be up or down by October 23?

Volume:
$147

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Up or Down - October 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

 - Predict

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Up or Down - October 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 9:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Up or Down - October 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$10
$147
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the TSM/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the TSM/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the TSM/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/tsm-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink TSM/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T13:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the TSM/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the TSM/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the TSM/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/tsm-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink TSM/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T13:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the TSMC stock market tracks the current odds of the stock going up or down, along with a price history showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $146, and the total volume traded to date, which is $147. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets on the future direction of TSMC. The dashboard is a key tool for understanding market sentiment and potential price movements.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may base their predictions on fundamental analysis and company reports, this market incorporates a wider range of information and collective intelligence. Discrepancies can arise due to factors not easily quantifiable, such as geopolitical risks or unexpected news events. It’s common to see this market anticipate changes before they are reflected in standard analyst ratings, offering a potentially leading indicator of future stock performance.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the TSMC stock will be up or down at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations accordingly, making it a responsive gauge of potential stock movement.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the TSMC stock price at 9:30AM-9:45AM ET on October 23rd is higher or lower than its price at market open on the same day. The final price will be sourced from a reputable financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders will then be paid out based on their positions in the market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 23, 2026. Major announcements from TSMC regarding earnings, production capacity, or new technology could have a substantial impact. Broader macroeconomic factors, such as changes in interest rates or global economic growth forecasts, are also relevant. Geopolitical events, particularly those affecting Taiwan or the semiconductor industry, could introduce volatility. Unexpected news related to key customers of TSMC, like Apple, could also shift trader sentiment and influence the market.