TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Up or Down - October 19, 2:45PM-3PM ET
predict

Will TSM/USDT be up or down by October 19?

Volume:
$218

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Up or Down - October 19, 2:45PM-3PM ET

 - Predict

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Up or Down - October 19, 2:45PM-3PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 3:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Up or Down - October 19, 2:45PM-3PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$218
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the TSM/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the TSM/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the TSM/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/tsm-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink TSM/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T18:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the TSM/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the TSM/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the TSM/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/tsm-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink TSM/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T18:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the TSMC stock market tracks the current odds of the stock going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time. You can also view the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $214, and the total volume traded to date, which is $218. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the potential movement of TSMC stock before Oct 19, 2026. The dashboard helps users understand market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may provide price targets and ratings based on fundamental analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. It's common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets can react more quickly to news and events, and may weigh different factors more heavily than standard financial models. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into market expectations and potential risks.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the TSMC stock will be up or down by Oct 19, 2026. The price of these contracts directly reflects the probability of that outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the price fluctuates based on the collective actions of all participants, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the stock's potential future performance. The current implied probability is influenced by recent news and overall market conditions.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the closing price of TSMC stock on that day is higher or lower than its opening price. The final price will be sourced from a major financial exchange and will be publicly available. Traders will then be paid out based on their positions in the market, reflecting the accuracy of their predictions.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 19, 2026. Key factors include major announcements from TSMC regarding earnings, production capacity, or new technologies. Broader macroeconomic trends, such as changes in interest rates or global economic growth, could also have an impact. Geopolitical events, particularly those affecting Taiwan or the semiconductor industry, represent another potential catalyst. Unexpected news regarding key customers of TSMC, like Apple, could also cause shifts in market sentiment and trading activity.