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Swiss National Bank decision in September?
polymarket

Swiss National Bank decision in September?

Volume:
$51,263

No Change

 - Polymarket

No Change - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 24, 2026

Closed: Sep 24, 5:31 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

No Change

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$39,676
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

25 bps increase

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,580
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25 bps decrease

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,025
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

50+ bps increase

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,022
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

50+ bps decrease

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$960
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the SNB policy rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Swiss National Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Swiss National Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 monetary policy assessment, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Swiss National Bank calendar (https://www.snb.ch/en/services-events/digital-services/event-schedule). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Swiss National Bank resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the SNB policy rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Swiss National Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Swiss National Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 monetary policy assessment, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Swiss National Bank calendar (https://www.snb.ch/en/services-events/digital-services/event-schedule). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Swiss National Bank resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Swiss National Bank decision tracks the probabilities associated with different outcomes regarding the SNB’s policy rate at the September meeting. You’ll find the current odds, a price history chart showing how the market has priced in information over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $9,496. The total volume traded on this market is $51,263, reflecting the interest in predicting the central bank’s next move. This allows users to gauge market sentiment and track changes in expectations.

Currently, prediction market participants are strongly anticipating a rate decrease. This contrasts with some analyst forecasts that predict a more cautious approach from the Swiss National Bank. While many economists expect the SNB to hold rates steady, this market indicates a substantial probability of a 25 basis point cut. It’s important to note that prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of the crowd, potentially incorporating information and perspectives not fully captured in traditional analyst reports. However, it is also possible that this market is influenced by factors distinct from those considered by economic analysts.

This market resolves around Sep 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official announcement made by the Swiss National Bank regarding its monetary policy decision at the September meeting. The market will reflect whether the SNB decreased the SNB policy rate by 25 bps, held it steady, or increased it. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the settled outcome and their positions in this market.

Several factors could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market. Unexpected economic data releases from Switzerland, such as inflation figures or GDP growth, could prompt traders to reassess their expectations. Statements from SNB officials regarding future monetary policy could also have a significant impact. Furthermore, global economic developments, particularly those affecting major economies like the United States and the Eurozone, could influence the SNB’s decision-making process and, consequently, the price action in this market. Any surprise announcements or shifts in market sentiment could lead to substantial movements.