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Swiss National Bank decision in December?
polymarket

Swiss National Bank decision in December?

Sep 24, 2026, 2:53 PM EST - Dec 9, 2026, 7:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$65,424
Volume 24h:
$2,026
199%
Liquidity:
$16,078
6%
Open interest:
$11,607N/A

No Change

 - Polymarket

No Change - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 9, 2026

Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the December meeting?

79%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 80.6¢ buys you 124 shares | Odds: 79% Total Payout: $124 | Net Profit: $24 Multiplier: 1.24x | ROI: 24% | APY: 415% 47 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

No Change

Trade
79%
2%
Yes 80.6¢No 22.1¢
2.7¢
$1,683
$17,314
0.03%
8%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

25 bps increase

Trade
19%
Yes 19.7¢No 82.6¢
2.3¢
$3,598
$30,895
0%
1%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

25 bps decrease

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$3,862
$7,298
38%
109%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

50+ bps decrease

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
—
$2,424
$6,075
0%
50%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

50+ bps increase

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$4,511
$3,841
0%
8%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the SNB policy rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Swiss National Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Swiss National Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 monetary policy assessment, scheduled for December 10, 2026, as listed on the official Swiss National Bank calendar (https://www.snb.ch/en/services-events/digital-services/event-schedule). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Swiss National Bank resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the SNB policy rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Swiss National Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Swiss National Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 monetary policy assessment, scheduled for December 10, 2026, as listed on the official Swiss National Bank calendar (https://www.snb.ch/en/services-events/digital-services/event-schedule). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Swiss National Bank resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market participants heavily favor a significant rate hike by the Swiss National Bank. This contrasts with some analyst forecasts, which present a wider range of possibilities, including smaller rate increases or even a hold. While analysts consider a broader set of economic indicators and models, this market reflects the collective judgment of individuals putting their capital at risk. It’s important to note that prediction markets often incorporate information not readily captured in traditional forecasts, such as subtle shifts in market expectations or insider knowledge. The difference in outlook highlights the diverse perspectives on the Swiss National Bank decision.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of different outcomes. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust, reflecting the evolving consensus. Currently, the market demonstrates strong conviction in a substantial rate increase, driving up the price of shares representing that possibility. The 24-hour volume of $2,021 indicates active trading and price discovery.

This market resolves around Dec 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official announcement made by the Swiss National Bank regarding its monetary policy decision in December. The outcome will be determined by the size of the change to the SNB policy rate, as communicated in the official statement. Traders should monitor official announcements from the Swiss National Bank for the definitive resolution of this market, as it will reflect the actual decision made by the central bank.

Several key signals could significantly impact this market before Dec 10, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases from Switzerland, such as inflation figures or GDP growth, could shift expectations regarding the Swiss National Bank’s stance. Statements from SNB officials hinting at their policy intentions would also be closely watched. Global economic developments, particularly those affecting major economies like the United States and the Eurozone, could influence the SNB’s decision. Finally, any unforeseen geopolitical events could introduce uncertainty and volatility, leading to price movements in this market.