TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

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4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

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Kalshi:

63%

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SPY Up or Down - October 30, 1PM-1:15PM ET
predict

Will SPY be up or down by October 30?

Volume:
$218

SPY Up or Down - October 30, 1PM-1:15PM ET

 - Predict

SPY Up or Down - October 30, 1PM-1:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 1:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

SPY Up or Down - October 30, 1PM-1:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$1
$218
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the SPY/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the SPY/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the SPY/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/spy-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink SPY/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T17:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the SPY/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the SPY/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the SPY/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/spy-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink SPY/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-30T17:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the SPY direction market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the total volume for this market is $218 and the 24-hour volume is $214. You can see how the perceived probability of the SPY moving up or down changes over time, reflected in the price fluctuations. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and potentially identify opportunities based on discrepancies between their own predictions and the collective wisdom of the crowd.

Generally, prediction market odds often provide a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental or technical analysis, this market reflects the aggregated beliefs of a diverse group of traders. It’s common to see prediction markets outperform polls or expert opinions, especially when dealing with uncertain events. However, it's important to remember that both approaches have their strengths and weaknesses, and neither is a guaranteed predictor of future outcomes. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information access or interpretation.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the SPY will be up or down at the specified time. The price of these contracts directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand, meaning that if more traders believe the SPY will go up, the price of 'up' contracts will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the latest information and sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the direction will be determined by comparing the SPY's price at 1:15 PM ET on October 30th to its price at 1:00 PM ET on the same day. If the price is higher, the 'up' outcome will be verified; if it is lower, the 'down' outcome will be verified. The resolution process relies on publicly available data and does not involve any subjective judgment.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 30, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or GDP figures, could shift investor sentiment. Unexpected geopolitical events or company-specific news related to large SPY constituents could also trigger price movements. Furthermore, any significant shifts in Federal Reserve policy or commentary from key economic figures could impact market expectations. Overall market risk appetite and broader trends in the stock market will also play a role in shaping the direction of this market.