TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$238,896,186

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,985,204,718

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,897,934,485

408,127

Markets across

39,552

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,429

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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SPY Up or Down - October 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET
predict

Will SPY be up or down by October 29?

Volume:
$733

SPY Up or Down - October 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

 - Predict

SPY Up or Down - October 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 1:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

SPY Up or Down - October 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$1
$733
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the SPY/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the SPY/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the SPY/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/spy-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink SPY/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T17:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the SPY/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the SPY/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the SPY/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/spy-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink SPY/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-29T17:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the SPY direction market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the volume is $720, and the total volume for this market is $733. You can see how the implied probabilities shift in real-time as traders buy and sell contracts, giving you a sense of the collective prediction. The dashboard provides a visual representation of market sentiment regarding whether the SPY will close higher or lower by Oct 29, 2026.

Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may base their predictions on fundamental or technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially when significant uncertainty surrounds the event. Currently, the market is weighing factors that analysts are also considering, but the collective judgment expressed in this market may differ in its weighting of those factors.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the SPY’s direction. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand; if more people believe the SPY will go up, the price of 'Up' contracts will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities accordingly.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the SPY ETF closes higher or lower during the 1:30PM-1:45PM ET trading window on October 29th. The final price during that period will determine the winning outcome. Traders will be able to see the resolution details on Predict following the close of trading.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 29, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation numbers or GDP growth, could shift investor sentiment. Major geopolitical events or shifts in Federal Reserve policy are also likely to have an impact. Company earnings reports from large SPY constituents could also influence the market, as could any surprising news related to interest rates or overall market risk appetite. Any unforeseen events that impact overall market confidence could cause substantial price movement in this market.