TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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SPY Up or Down - October 26, 10:45AM-11AM ET
predict

Will SPY be up or down on October 26?

Volume:
$338

SPY Up or Down - October 26, 10:45AM-11AM ET

 - Predict

SPY Up or Down - October 26, 10:45AM-11AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 11:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

SPY Up or Down - October 26, 10:45AM-11AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$109
$338
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the SPY/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the SPY/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the SPY/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/spy-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink SPY/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T14:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the SPY/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the SPY/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the SPY/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/spy-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink SPY/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T14:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the SPY direction market tracks the current odds, reflecting what traders believe about whether the SPY will close higher or lower during the specified time window. You’ll find a price history chart showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $331. The total volume for this market is $338, indicating overall interest. This information helps you understand market sentiment and potential trading opportunities related to short-term SPY movements.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently publish price targets and directional recommendations, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a real-money view on the SPY’s short-term trajectory. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It's valuable to consider both sources when forming your own opinion, recognizing that this market reflects what people are willing to put their money on, rather than simply what they predict.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the SPY’s direction. The price of these contracts directly translates to the implied probability of the SPY closing up or down within the 10:45AM-11AM ET window on October 26th. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market efficiently incorporates new information as traders react to news and events, constantly adjusting their positions and influencing the price. This dynamic pricing mechanism provides a real-time assessment of market expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the SPY’s direction during the 10:45AM-11AM ET window on October 26th is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on whether the SPY ETF closes higher or lower during that specific timeframe. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual outcome, as determined by the closing price of the SPY during the designated period.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, could trigger shifts in investor sentiment. Major geopolitical events or news related to company earnings within the SPY’s holdings could also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, any surprising announcements from the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy could influence market direction and, consequently, trading activity in this market. Keep an eye on these factors as they unfold.