TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$260,393,102

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,894,304,386

408,643

Markets across

39,771

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,493

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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SPY Up or Down - October 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
predict

Will SPY be up or down by October 23?

Volume:
$394

SPY Up or Down - October 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET

 - Predict

SPY Up or Down - October 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 3:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

SPY Up or Down - October 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$1
$394
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the SPY/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the SPY/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the SPY/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/spy-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink SPY/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T19:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the SPY/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the SPY/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the SPY/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/spy-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink SPY/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T19:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the SPY direction market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. You can see how the implied probability of the SPY going up or down changes over time, as well as the total volume traded in this market, which is currently $385. The dashboard provides a visual representation of trader sentiment and activity, allowing you to quickly assess the market's dynamics. Total volume across the lifetime of this market is $394.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental or technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, risk appetites, or access to information. It’s common to see this market anticipate events before they are widely recognized by analysts, or to assign different probabilities to various outcomes than those presented in typical financial reports.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the SPY will close higher or lower within the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective sentiment of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the implied probability of the SPY moving in either direction, with higher prices suggesting a stronger belief in one outcome over the other. The market’s depth and liquidity also influence price movements.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the SPY ETF closes higher or lower during the 3:15PM-3:30PM ET window on October 23rd. The final price of the SPY during that period will determine the winning outcome. Traders will be able to view the resolution details on Predict following the event’s conclusion.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, could shift investor sentiment. Unexpected geopolitical events or news related to interest rate policies from the Federal Reserve could also trigger substantial price movements. Company-specific news affecting major SPY constituents, or even broad market trends, are all potential catalysts. Any significant shift in overall market risk appetite could also impact the direction of this market.