TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.1b

24H VOL:

$172,394,893

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,983,476,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,821,572,886

404,136

Markets across

40,075

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,369

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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SPY Up or Down - October 19, 2:45PM-3PM ET
predict

Will SPY be up or down by October 19?

Volume:
$271

SPY Up or Down - October 19, 2:45PM-3PM ET

 - Predict

SPY Up or Down - October 19, 2:45PM-3PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 3:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

SPY Up or Down - October 19, 2:45PM-3PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$271
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the SPY/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the SPY/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the SPY/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/spy-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink SPY/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T18:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the SPY/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the SPY/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the SPY/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/spy-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink SPY/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T18:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the SPY direction market tracks the current odds of the SPY closing up or down between 2:45 PM and 3:00 PM ET on October 19th. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the total volume traded in this market, currently at $271. The 24-hour volume is $266, giving you a sense of recent trading activity. This allows you to monitor market sentiment and see how others are predicting the SPY’s movement.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or qualitative opinions, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, translating diverse opinions into a quantifiable probability. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market’s implied probability and prevailing analyst views, it could signal disagreement about underlying economic factors or potential market catalysts. It’s important to consider both sources of information when forming your own outlook.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the SPY’s direction. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to offer accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a highly efficient and informative market for forecasting short-term SPY movements.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the SPY ETF closed higher or lower between 2:45 PM and 3:00 PM ET on October 19th. The final price of the SPY during that timeframe will determine whether the 'Up' or 'Down' outcome is declared, and all contracts will be settled accordingly. Traders will be able to see the verified result on Predict following the close of trading.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 19, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or unemployment numbers, could influence investor sentiment and drive trading activity. Major geopolitical events or shifts in Federal Reserve policy expectations could also create volatility. Company-specific news related to large SPY constituents could also impact the market, as could any surprising announcements from key market players. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding potential price swings in this market.