TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 19, 11:03 PM EST
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Opinion
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official "Close" price for SPY (SPY) on the trading day specified in the title is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. A "Close" exactly equal to the specified price resolves to "No". If the market is not open on the specified day (exchange holiday or unscheduled closure), or SPY (SPY) does not trade at all during that day's regular session, this market resolves 50-50 — each side is paid at half value; this is not a refund. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting SPY (SPY), this market resolves on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in the title is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the SPY (SPY) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/ under "Historical Prices". If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which SPY (SPY) trades governs.
Opinion
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official "Close" price for SPY (SPY) on the trading day specified in the title is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. A "Close" exactly equal to the specified price resolves to "No". If the market is not open on the specified day (exchange holiday or unscheduled closure), or SPY (SPY) does not trade at all during that day's regular session, this market resolves 50-50 — each side is paid at half value; this is not a refund. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting SPY (SPY), this market resolves on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in the title is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the SPY (SPY) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/ under "Historical Prices". If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which SPY (SPY) trades governs.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Currently, this market reflects the aggregated predictions of many traders, offering a unique perspective on the likelihood of the SPY being above a certain price on October 19, 2026. While analysts may base their forecasts on fundamental and technical analysis, this market incorporates a wider range of information and potential catalysts, potentially identifying overlooked factors influencing the SPY’s price. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas of disagreement or uncertainty.
On Opinion, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the SPY’s price on October 19, 2026. The price of these contracts directly reflects the implied probability of the event occurring. On Opinion, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as traders react to new information and changing sentiment. Higher demand for contracts indicating the SPY will be above a certain price drives up the price, and vice-versa, creating a real-time assessment of market expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on the closing price of the SPY on October 19, 2026. The platform will verify this price against established financial data sources to determine whether the SPY was trading above the specified level at the close of the trading day. The market will then settle based on this verified price, distributing payouts to traders holding winning contracts.
Several signals and events could significantly move this market before its resolution on Oct 19, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or GDP figures, could influence investor sentiment and the SPY’s price. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in Federal Reserve policy are also likely catalysts. Company-specific news, particularly from large-cap companies within the SPY index, could also have an impact. Finally, overall market risk appetite and broader trends in the stock market will play a crucial role in shaping the price action of this market.
