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S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on November 2?
⌛Ending SoonTrending
opinion
polymarket

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on November 2?

Oct 30, 2026, 8:00 AM EST - Nov 2, 2026, 4:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$47,463
Volume 24h:
$38,080
890%
Liquidity:
$45,965
2,175%
Open interest:
$32,672N/A

$740

 - Polymarket

$740 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 2, 2026

Time left: 00h:18m:50s

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on November 2?

100%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 99.9¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 100% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0.1% | APY: N/A Illiquid market
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

$740

Trade
100%
14%
Yes 100¢No 0.9¢
0.9¢
$45
$163
167%
N/A
N/A
18m
Active
polymarket

$735

Trade
100%
10%
Yes 100¢No 0.9¢
0.9¢
$36
$322
33%
N/A
N/A
18m
Active
opinion

735

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
18m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
99.6%
Yes 100¢No 0.9¢
Avg: 0.9¢Max: 0.9¢
polymarket

$745

Trade
99%
25%
Yes 100¢No 1.9¢
1.9¢
$89
$292
41%
N/A
N/A
18m
Active
polymarket

$750

Trade
93%
7%
Yes 96.7¢No 11¢
7.7¢
$16,363
$8,785
2,363%
N/A
N/A
18m
Active
polymarket

$755

Trade
20%
10%
Yes 32.6¢No 92.9¢
25.5¢
$13,084
$7,160
15%
N/A
N/A
18m
Active
polymarket

$760

Trade
10%
Yes 19.2¢No 99¢
18.2¢
$14,495
$4,841
0%
N/A
N/A
18m
Active
polymarket

$785

Trade
2%
14%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.8¢
—
$53
$388
43%
N/A
N/A
18m
Active
polymarket

$780

Trade
1%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.9¢
—
$69
$879
53%
N/A
N/A
18m
Active
polymarket

$770

Trending
Trade
0%
16%
Yes 2.4¢No 98.8¢
—
$731
$9,266
46,228%
N/A
N/A
18m
Active
opinion

760

Trade
50%
Yes 50¢No 50¢
—
N/A
$9,797
41%
N/A
N/A
18m
Active
polymarket

$775

Trade
20%
Yes 19.7¢No 90.1¢
—
$493
$85
1,600%
N/A
N/A
18m
Active
polymarket

$765

Trade
0%
10%
Yes 19.4¢No 90.3¢
—
$507
$5,485
1,124%
N/A
N/A
18m
Active
opinion

740

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
18m
Active
opinion

745

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
18m
Active
opinion

750

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
18m
Active
opinion

755

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
18m
Active
opinion

765

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
18m
Active
opinion

770

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
18m
Active
opinion

775

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
18m
Active
opinion

780

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
18m
Active
opinion

785

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
18m
Active
Total markets: 22

Description

These markets ask whether the S&P 500 index, as measured by the SPY ETF, will close above a specified price on November 2, 2026. The markets are essentially a series of price hurdles for the SPY ETF on a specific date.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms consistently define resolution based on the SPY ETF closing price on November 2, 2026, using Pyth data as the primary source.Primary resolution logic: Pyth (https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD)

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is based on the 'Close' price of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours.
  • If no Pyth Close value is available, the last valid Pyth price during regular trading hours will be used.
  • If no Pyth price exists, the official closing price from the primary exchange will be used.
  • If November 2, 2026 is not a trading day, the market resolves 50-50.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tie: If the SPY closing price is exactly equal to the target price, the market resolves to 'No'.
  • No Trading: If SPY does not trade during the regular session on November 2, 2026, the market resolves 50-50.
  • Corporate Action: In the event of a stock split or reverse stock split, resolution will be based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
Timing: Resolution will occur after the close of trading on November 2, 2026, once the closing price is reliably available from Pyth or the primary exchange.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on November 2?

Opinion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official "Close" price for SPY (SPY) on the trading day specified in the title is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. A "Close" exactly equal to the specified price resolves to "No". If the market is not open on the specified day (exchange holiday or unscheduled closure), or SPY (SPY) does not trade at all during that day's regular session, this market resolves 50-50 — each side is paid at half value; this is not a refund. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting SPY (SPY), this market resolves on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in the title is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the SPY (SPY) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/ under "Historical Prices". If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which SPY (SPY) trades governs.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a 'wisdom of the crowd' effect, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may be influenced by biases or firm positions, while prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions through financial incentives. While analyst forecasts are readily available, this market provides a continuously updated probability based on actual money at stake. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas of disagreement or uncertainty surrounding the S&P 500’s potential performance.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the S&P 500 closing price on that date is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official closing price as reported by a widely recognized financial data provider. Traders will be able to see the final result and any associated payouts following the verification process. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of whether the S&P 500 closed above the specified level.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Nov 2, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, could influence investor sentiment and drive price movements. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in Federal Reserve policy could also create volatility. Company earnings reports from key S&P 500 constituents will be closely watched, as will any significant news related to interest rates or economic growth. Any of these events could lead to a reassessment of the probability of the S&P 500 closing price reaching the target level.