TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

24H VOL:

$279,496,801

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 5?
polymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 5?

Volume:
$9,677

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 5?

 - Polymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 5? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 6:31 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 5?

View
100%
41%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$9,677
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on October 5 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on October 5 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official open/close price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If the previous trading day has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Open/Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on October 5 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on October 5 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official open/close price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If the previous trading day has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Open/Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the S&P 500 opening direction market tracks the current odds of the index opening up or down on October 5. You can see the implied probabilities based on trading activity, as well as a price history chart showing how the market has fluctuated over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $9,537, and the total volume traded to date, which is $9,677. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity surrounding the S&P 500’s opening direction.

Currently, prediction market participants are expressing a strong view on the S&P 500’s opening direction. While traditional analyst forecasts vary, they often consider factors like economic data releases, geopolitical events, and company earnings reports. This market aggregates the collective wisdom of traders, offering a different perspective than individual analyst opinions. It's important to note that prediction market odds reflect what traders believe *will* happen, not necessarily what they *expect* to happen based on fundamental analysis. Discrepancies between this market and analyst forecasts can sometimes indicate areas of disagreement or uncertainty.

This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the S&P 500 index opened at a higher or lower price than its previous day’s closing price on October 5. The opening price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider. Traders should monitor news and financial data releases leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about potential market-moving events. The final outcome will be determined by this comparison.

Several signals and events could significantly impact this market before Oct 5, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as employment numbers or inflation reports, could shift market sentiment. Unexpected geopolitical developments or significant news from major corporations within the S&P 500 could also cause price fluctuations. Furthermore, any announcements related to Federal Reserve policy or interest rate changes are likely to influence trading activity in this market. Traders should closely monitor these factors and adjust their positions accordingly, as they all contribute to the overall risk assessment surrounding the S&P 500’s opening direction.