TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 12:14 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance SOL/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance SOL/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Currently, the odds in this market reflect a collective prediction about the Solana price on October 9. These predictions are formed by traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome, and can be compared to expectations derived from traditional sources like analyst forecasts and futures contracts. If a significant difference exists between the implied probability of a price range in this market and external forecasts, it could indicate disagreement or unique information held by prediction market participants. It’s a fascinating way to gauge market belief beyond standard financial indicators.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in different Solana price ranges. The price of each share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe a specific price range is likely, the higher the share price for that outcome will climb. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds are constantly adjusting to incorporate new information and changing sentiment surrounding Solana’s potential price movement.
This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the Solana price on October 9 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the price of Solana as recorded by a widely recognized and trusted source at a specific time on that date. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predicted price range matches the actual price, according to the rules of Polymarket. The final price will determine which shares are worth their face value and which expire worthless.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 9, 2026. Major news regarding Solana’s network upgrades, partnerships, or adoption by institutional investors could all shift trader sentiment. Broader cryptocurrency market trends, such as Bitcoin’s price action or regulatory developments, will likely have an impact as well. Unexpected macroeconomic news, like changes in interest rates or inflation data, could also indirectly affect Solana’s price. Monitoring these events and their potential impact on Solana is crucial for understanding how this market might evolve.